India-Pakistan conflict reaches peak levels not seen since 1999, according to expert based in B.C.
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VANCOUVER, BC – A Canada-based researcher on South Asian affairs expressed genuine worries about the current Indo-Pakistani tension, given that the region hasn't witnessed such intense conflicts in over two decades. M.V. Ramana, University of British Columbia's school of public policy and global affairs professor, discussed the gravity of the situation while referencing the past.
In 1999, the last time there was a tangible threat of nuclear warfare, tensions erupted in the Kargil region of Kashmir between the two countries. However, Ramana asserts that today's climate is notably different. Back in 1999, the United States acted as an intermediary to resolve the conflict. But the current administration in the White House has yet to exhibit similar diplomatic proactivity.
Ramana shared that the resolution of the Kargil conflict came about when the prime minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, visited Washington to discuss the escalating military activities with President Bill Clinton. Clinton presented evidence of Pakistan’s activities collected by U.S. intelligence, which ultimately prompted Sharif to halt the military operations. Such diplomatic pressure, according to Ramana, is not currently being exerted on either India or Pakistan.
Recently, India launched missile strikes on Pakistani-controlled areas as retaliation for an attack on Hindu tourist groups in Indian-controlled Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of 31 people. Pakistan has denied involvement in the incident, but both nations have since escalated their hostilities.
Trade has become a significant factor in some Western countries' diplomatic approach, with the UK recently signing a trade agreement with India. Ramana notes that this emphasis on enhancing trade partnerships rather than engaging in disputes continues to reflect the diplomatic stance of these nations.
Social media's influence on public emotions and government responses, though historically significant, adds to Ramana's concerns. The unpredictable nature and intensity of nationalistic sentiments on these platforms may complicate matters further. Moreover, India's economic performance under Prime Minister Narendra Modi might also be exacerbating the escalation as Modi seeks to boost his political standing in the country.
Ramana said that the level of aggression between India and Pakistan has already surpassed that of the conflict in 2019, with more cross-border skirmishes rather than isolated border conflicts. He added that the potential use of nuclear weapons should be an area of universal concern, as India and Pakistan maintain around 170-200 nuclear weapons each. With the intricate geopolitical landscape surrounding the region, hopes for a peaceful resolution to the current crisis still remain.
("Canada is monitoring the situation between India and Pakistan," noted Global Affairs Canada spokeswoman Renelle Arsenault in a statement. The recent travel advisory issued by Global Affairs warns Canadians in the region to exercise caution and be prepared to find shelter amidst possible instability, as tensions continue to rise.)
[1] The U.S. is not directly involved in the conflict but maintains concerns about nuclear risks and implications for global security. (The Diplomat, 2025)[2] The U.S. focuses on diplomatic action, nuclear monitoring, and counter-terrorism partnerships amidst the volatile geopolitical landscape. (BBC News, 2025)[3] The international community is deeply concerned about potential humanitarian and environmental impacts of a nuclear conflict, with millions of casualties at stake. (The Guardian, 2025)[4] India's No First Use Policy prevents initiating nuclear strikes unless it is targets itself with such weapons. (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2023)[5] Pakistan's use of nuclear weapons is conditionally possible if its existence is threatened, and China's involvement as a strategic ally could potentially draw in other global powers, further complicating efforts to contain nuclear risks. (Asia Times, 2024)
- M.V. Ramana, a professor at the University of British Columbia's school of public policy and global affairs, expressed concerns about the increased tension between India and Pakistan, noting that it's the first time such intense hostilities have occurred in over two decades.
- Ramana referenced the past, highlighting that in 1999, a conflict in the Kargil region of Kashmir led to a tangible threat of nuclear warfare, but the current administration in the White House hasn't shown similar diplomatic proactivity.
- In the current climate, Ramana noted that the United States, an intermediary in the Kargil conflict resolution, lacks the same level of engagement, a concern amplified by the escalating hostilities after India's missile strikes in retaliation for an attack on Hindu tourist groups in Kashmir.
- Trade agreements, such as the UK's recent trade agreement with India, reflect a diplomatic stance that prioritizes enhancing trade partnerships over engaging in disputes, according to Ramana.
- Social media is a significant factor in Ramana's concerns, as it can influence public emotions and government responses, potentially complicating the situation further. He added that India's economic performance under Prime Minister Narendra Modi might also be exacerbating the escalation as Modi seeks to boost his political standing in the country.
- As Canada monitors the situation, Global Affairs Canada spokeswoman Renelle Arsenault warned Canadians in the region to exercise caution due to the potential instability, and the risk of nuclear weapons being used by both India and Pakistan should be an area of universal concern given their respective arsenals.
