India's Water Weapon: Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty in Response to Pakistan's Terror Support
India issues caution to Pakistan
By a Casual but Knowledgeable Commentator
In the aftermath of the brutal slaughter of 26 civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir by suspected Pakistani militants, India has threatened to retaliate against its neighbor. Last month's attack, which targeted Hindu tourists from India and Nepal, depicts the usual high-profile acts of terrorism carried out from Pakistani soil. The major difference this time? India seems to have found a way to strike back via diplomatic means.
The Indian government has allegedly been given a green light to pause the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), the world's most-generous water-sharing pact between the two nations. The document grants Pakistan access to more than 80% of the Indus Basin's waters. Brokered in 1960 by the World Bank, the IWT was hailed as a shining example of international cooperation. However, the agreement has been marred by violations on both sides over the years.
Pakistan's alleged blatant disregard for the treaty terms has led to a reactive response from India. For example, Pakistan's provocative behavior includes using the treaty's dispute-resolution mechanisms to instigate international arbitration over minor engineering differences and obstructing India's ability to use its rightful share of water. Recently, when India officially sought to update the IWT – to account for unforeseen factors like climate change, excessive groundwater depletion and population increase – Pakistan refused to negotiate.
It seems India has finally had enough. By placing the treaty "in abeyance," a term not clearly defined in international law, Prime Minister Modi has demonstrated strategic ambiguity while sending a resolute message: "Water-sharing has conditions." This is a warning, not a complete break.
India's decision to suspend the IWT has led to a major escalation in diplomatic tensions between the two nations. The move has resulted in the expulsion of Indian military liaisons from Pakistan, the closing of airspace for Pakistani aircraft, and restricted visas and cross-border access for Pakistani nationals[1][2]. In response, Pakistan has halted trade, closed the Wagah border crossing, and suspended overflight rights for Indian aircraft[1][3].
The consequences of the tension could further destabilize the region, increasing the risk of conflict[3]. Any disruption in water supply could have devastating implications for Pakistan's agriculture and electricity generation economy[3].
India's unilateral suspension of the treaty raises legal questions about treaty obligations and compliance with international law[1][3]. Pakistan views this as a breach of international law and plans to challenge it at international forums like the United Nations and the International Court of Justice[1][3]. Despite threats, India has made it clear that the IWT is not permanently off the table, but rather paused until Pakistan demonstrates a commitment to maintaining peace, arresting terrorist leaders, closing down terrorist training camps, and ending cross-border violence[4].
One essential insight: in a recent escalation, both countries have halted data sharing, design approvals, and inspections under the IWT, while pursuing actions previously obstructed by Pakistan, such as reservoir flushing and riverbed desilting[2]. However, India is not disrupting existing water flows. It lacks the infrastructure to divert major rivers flowing towards Pakistan, and its storage capacity on these rivers is negligible[2][3].
Sources:
- India-Pakistan tension: A brief background and what has sparked it
- India’s pausing of the Indus waters treaty with Pakistan
- What you need to know about the origins of the dispute between India and Pakistan over water
- India And Pakistan: The Long and Troubled History of Water Sharing
Editor's Note: This analysis is not to be construed as political commentary but is instead an objective exploration of the events, their legal and political implications, and regional considerations. The sources are cited for the convenience of the reader to gather further insights.
- India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is a diplomatic response to Pakistan's alleged support of terrorist activities in Kashmir.
- Pakistan's breaches of the IWT, such as obstructing India's water rights and aggressive use of dispute-resolution mechanisms, have added tension to the already strained relations.
- The decision to put the IWT "in abeyance" is a warning to Pakistan, demanding a commitment to peace, arresting terrorists, and ending cross-border violence before negotiations resume.
- The escalation in diplomatic tensions has the potential to destabilize the region, with potential negative impact on Pakistan's agriculture and electricity generation economy due to disruptions in water supply.
