India declares plans to restrict water flow from rivers supplying Pakistan, following the Pahalgam bombing incident.
Harsh Words Over Dried Rivers: Modi's Water Weapon Threatens to Ignite a nuclear Confrontation
In a ballsy move, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared war on Pakistan by announcing his country would reduce, and potentially cease, the flow of rivers originating in India, on May 6. Addressing a crowd, Modi stated, "That water once freely flowing out will now be staunchly withheld, to meet India's interests."
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This audacious gesture comes in response to the brutal attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir on April 22 that left 26 innocent lives in shambles, the deadliest attack against civilians in the region in over twenty years. As the perpetrator remains unidentified, India lays the blame squarely on Pakistan's shoulders. Pakistan has vehemently denied any involvement.
The U.S, however, has implored both nations to pacify their differences and seek a "responsible resolution" that maintains the long-term peace and stability in the South Asian region. While the U.S refrained from directly commenting on Modi's remarks, they confirm that contact with the governments of both nations remains ongoing.
Water Warfare: A Ploy of Consequence
India has abandoned the 1960 water-sharing treaty with Pakistan—a decimation of a decades-long agreement born out of the intricate Indus River Basin shared by the two countries following the partition of British India. Modi's decision to turn the taps off marks the end of India's adherence to the decades-old peace treaty. Pakistan, in turn, has branded India's aggression as "an act of war."
Abdul Kazim Pirzada, Punjab's Minister of Irrigation, echoed this sentiment when he informed the French Press Agency that Pakistan has observed "unnatural alterations" in the Chenab River’s flow, which has been one of the crucial rivers under Pakistan’s control according to the 1960 treaty.
Laying Waste to a Historical Agreement
Situated near the border, Punjab—house to almost half of Pakistan's 240 million population—is the agricultural backbone of the country. The Indus Treaty allows India to tap into the shared rivers for dams and crops, but prohibits it from diverting watercourses or modifying downstream volume. Any attempts to disrupt river flows could spell disaster for a country that heavily depends on agriculture and hydropower to sustain its economy.
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Indus Water Treaty: A Historical Perspective
- The Genesis: The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was signed in 1960 after nine years of negotiation between India and Pakistan, with the World Bank acting as a mediator. The treaty was forged against the backdrop of the partition in 1947, which left both countries with a shared Indus River Basin.
- Sharing Streams: The IWT divides the waters of the Indus system into two main groups: Eastern Rivers (Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi)—assigned for unrestricted use by India, and Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab)—allocated to Pakistan, with India allowed certain limited uses.
Nerves Frayed: Flows of Grief
- Tension Escalation: In recent years, tensions have escalated, particularly following the 2016 Uri attack, which led to India suspending cooperation under the IWT and accelerating dam projects.
- Renegotiation Row: In 2023, India invoked Article XII(3) of the IWT to renegotiate the treaty, citing climate change, national development needs, and Pakistani obstruction. Pakistan refused, insisting on mutual consent for any amendments.
- Legal Battle: By 2025, both nations took their disputes to the courts: India sought a neutral expert for dam design reviews, while Pakistan demanded a Court of Arbitration. Unprecedented under the IWT, these parallel processes have intensified the conflict.
The Desertification of Peace: IWT Suspension
In April 2025, a major terrorist attack in Pahalgam led India to suspend the IWT, proclaiming it would remain "in abeyance" until Pakistan unequivocally renounces its support for cross-border terrorism. This is the first time the treaty has been suspended since its inception.
The suspension grants India greater control over the usage and dam construction of the Indus system's waters, jeopardizing Pakistan’s water security, as its economy heavily depends on western rivers allocated by the IWT. The current water dispute casts shadows on the political stability of the region and poses a risk to the well-being of millions who rely on the Indus Basin for agriculture and drinking water.
- In a move that escalated tensions between the two nations, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted on Tuesday that India would abandon its adherence to the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, potentially leading to a war-and-conflicts retaliation from Pakistan.
- Pakistan, in turn, branded India's decision as an act of war and has warned of dire consequences for the region, with the flow of rivers originating in India, such as the Chenab, being crucial to Pakistan's agriculture and hydropower economy.
- General news outlets have reported that Pakistan's Minister of Irrigation, Abdul Kazim Pirzada, has observed "unnatural alterations" in the Chenab River’s flow since India's move, a deviation from the peace treaty's stipulations.
- With both India and Pakistan bracing for potential war over the Kashmir conflict and the Indus Waters Treaty dispute, the political situation in the South Asian region remains tense, highlighting the need for diplomatic intervention to avoid further escalation.
