A Brink of War: The Kashmir Conflict Heats Up
Escalating Tensions: India and Pakistan Heading towards a Potentially Perilous Facing-off - India and Pakistan are moving dangerously towards a confrontation
The region of Kashmir, nestled in the western Himalayas, has been a hot button issue between the two nuclear heavyweights, India and Pakistan, for over half a century. The recent string of terrorist attacks in Kashmir has led to India striking targets within Pakistan and the Pakistan-controlled part of Kashmir, raising concerns that this crisis could escalate even further.
The danger lies in the fact that Kashmir is encompassed by three nuclear powers, and militant groups remain active in the area. Pakistan has issued threats of retaliation following India's nighttime air strikes, fueling fears that the situation could spinning out of control and potentially engulf the entire region in war. China, who shares a contentious border with India in the eastern part of the Kashmir region, could also be dragged into the conflict.
The Root of the Conflict
Tracing back the origins of the conflict, we find ourselves in the colonial era. In 1947, when the British released control of the Indian subcontinent, they created Pakistan, an Islamic nation with a predominantly Muslim population. After two countries had gained independence, they fought three wars, with two of those conflicts fought over Kashmir. This region's picturesque mountain lakes and snow-capped peaks make it a popular tourist destination.
In the last few weeks, the tension has risen as India has suspended the Indus Water Treaty, which determines the Indus and its tributaries water usage for both countries. In response, Pakistan has stated that they may declare the 1972 Shimla Agreement invalid, a crucial foundation for negotiations between the two nations. Leaving the treaty has been deemed extremely risky.
The Risk of Nuclear War
Although India's "No First Use" doctrine pledges to refrain from using nuclear weapons first, India's concept of massive retaliation could see it respond to attacks on its own territories with a devastating nuclear counterstrike.
In contrast, Pakistan reserves the right to use nuclear weapons first if the existence of Pakistan is immediately threatened. Pakistan's "Full-Spectrum Deterrence" doctrine mainly serves as a deterrent to prevent any form of aggression against the country. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) estimates that India has 172 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan has 170.
- India
- Suspending the Indus Water Treaty
- "No First Use" doctrine
- Massive retaliation
- Pakistan
- Reserves the right to use nuclear weapons first
- "Full-Spectrum Deterrence" doctrine
- Kashmir
- Territorial conflict
- Nuclear powers involved
- Popular tourist destination
The Tit-for-Tat Game
The governments of both New Delhi and Islamabad are under increasing domestic pressure to respond harshly to hostilities from the other side. The escalation is further advanced than during the 2019 crisis, according to South Asia expert Michael Kugelman.
- Diplomatic Tensions
- Expelling diplomats
- Closing airspace
- Halting trade
- Military Retaliation
- Pakistan's vows of retaliation
- Air raid sirens in India
The Role of China
Although China is not directly involved in the Kashmir conflict, it plays a significant role in regional politics:
- China-Pakistan Alliance: China has strong diplomatic and economic ties with Pakistan, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This alliance could influence Pakistan's stance on the Kashmir issue.
- Border Disputes with India: China also shares its own border disputes with India, particularly in the Ladakh region. This could complicate India's military posture in Kashmir.
- Global Influence: China's position as a major global player may grant it diplomatic influence in mediating or shaping the international response to the conflict. However, its close ties with Pakistan could limit its ability to act as an impartial mediator.
As the world watches on with bated breath, international leaders such as President Trump have called for calm and an end to hostilities to prevent further escalation. Let us hope that a peaceful solution can be reached before this conflict spirals out of control.
- The Commission, in light of the escalating Kashmir conflict, has been asked to submit a proposal for a directive on the protection of workers from the risks related to exposure to ionizing radiation, given the increasing tensions between nuclear powers India and Pakistan.
- Despite China not being directly involved in the Kashmir conflict, it plays a significant role in the regional politics, as its China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and border disputes with India could influence Pakistan's stance on the Kashmir issue and complicate India's military posture in Kashmir.
- In the midst of war-and-conflicts news dominating the headlines, the general news now also includes the resurgence of attacks in Kashmir, a picturesque mountain region encompassed by three nuclear powers, which has led to diplomatic tensions and military retaliation between India and Pakistan.
- In the political arena, leaders from various nations have called for unification and agreement, in hopes of preventing further withdrawing of treaties such as the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan, and deescalating the overall crisis to prevent a nuclear war.
