Increased Ukrainians view the United States as a supportive power, given Trump's ultimatum to Putin
In a recent survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), it was found that the opinions of Ukrainians towards their allies have shifted significantly. The survey, which was conducted from July 23 to August 4, used a random sample of 1022 respondents aged 18 and above, residing in territory controlled by the Ukrainian government at the time of the survey, who were interviewed via telephone.
The survey revealed that a majority of Ukrainians (63%) still consider Europe a reliable ally that wants an acceptable war resolution for Ukraine. However, the confidence in this alliance decreases from West to East, with a drop from 70% to 55%. Conversely, 27% of Ukrainians do not consider Europe a reliable ally.
Opinions on U.S. policy are divided in all regions of Ukraine. Prior to the survey, the U.S. President expressed doubt that Putin "seeks peace," stating that Putin is saying "a lot of nonsense." However, in late July and early August, 42% of Ukrainians perceived the U.S. as a reliable ally. This shift in perception is likely due to more balanced statements from the U.S. President regarding the war and its resolution in July.
The Biden administration's approach of maintaining military aid, reinforcing NATO's eastern borders, and articulating clear support during this period seems to have positively influenced Ukrainian perceptions of the U.S. as a reliable ally. The formal statistical sampling error for the sample does not exceed 4.1%. To mitigate the effect of biased responses, half of the respondents were asked about Europe, and half about the U.S., resulting in a margin of error of no more than 5.8%.
The shift in the perception of U.S. policy by Ukrainians is noteworthy, considering the ongoing complex diplomatic discussions involving political figures like the visit of former President Trump with Russia's Putin in August, which did not yield agreements impacting the war aims but were widely publicized.
On July 14, Trump threatened to impose "severe tariffs" of "around 100%" on Russian goods if a deal to end the war in Ukraine is not reached within 50 days. He also confirmed that he plans to send various types of weapons to Ukraine, including Patriots, which will be "fully funded."
Events after August 6 and the planning of the meeting between D. Trump and V. Putin are likely already significantly impacting Ukrainians' perception of U.S. policy, according to KIIS. The same survey conducted by KIIS reports that 38% of Ukrainians believe the U.S. is pressuring Ukraine for an unacceptable peace.
In all regions of Ukraine, a majority considers Europe a reliable ally, although confidence in this decreases from West to East. The survey results, despite an additional systematic bias during wartime, still allow for a reasonably reliable analysis of public sentiment. The consistent and visible U.S. presidential rhetoric and aid commitments seem to have positively influenced Ukrainian perceptions of the U.S. as a reliable ally in the timeframe mentioned.
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