Tank Shortages: Russia's Defense Industry Struggles to Keep Up
Increased production of Russian tanks - however, significant obstacles could jeopardize output
In the heart of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia's defense industry is under immense pressure to keep pace with the demand for battle tanks and armored fighting vehicles. While the production of these military assets is reportedly at its peak, the focus on restoring older models leaves a question mark over the sustainability of this approach.
At a summit in The Hague, a high-ranking NATO representative shed light on the current state of Russia's defense industry. The defense industry, he claimed, has reached its production maximum, maintaining this output for at least another year. This means that Russia can continue to manufacture or restore hundreds of tanks, armored fighting vehicles, and troop carriers monthly.
However, the supply of battle tanks suitable for restoration is dwindling. NATO believes that Moscow currently has around 2000 old battle tanks, many of which are only fit for cannibalization, i.e., breaking down for spare parts. If Russia continues to lose tanks at the rate it is and replaces them with restored models, the number of old battle tanks will steadily decrease.
In May, Ukraine reported 133 destroyed or damaged Russian battle tanks, while June numbers are expected to drop slightly. This indicates that Russia can replace its battle tank losses through the defense industry.
A report by "The Washington Post" last month suggested that Russia had an estimated 13,000 mothballed Soviet-era tanks in its depots at the start of the war. If these figures are accurate, this stock could last for several months.
While the focus on modernizing and restoring tanks seems to be addressing the immediate need, long-term challenges remain. NATO does not anticipate that Russia will be able to increase its production, due to internal difficulties and the defense industry reaching its maximum capacity.
According to the NATO representative, Moscow has lost at least 2700 tanks since the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine reports around 11,000 destroyed or damaged examples, figures which cannot be independently verified. The production capacities for armored fighting vehicles and unarmored troop transports are estimated at around 183 units, but Russia has lost at least 5000 since the onset of the large-scale war - twice as much as it originally prepared for in 2022. Ukraine even reports around 23,000 destroyed or damaged armored combat vehicles.
In the face of these challenges, Russia's tank production, while robust, may struggle to keep pace with the demand and losses in the long run.
Tags: Attack on Ukraine, Wars and Conflicts, Military, NATO, Tanks, Russia, Ukraine
- Enrichment Data:
- Current Status of Russia's Tank Production
- Production scale and growth have increased significantly over the past year, with Russia’s main tank manufacturer, Uralvagonzavod, estimated to produce 140-180 units of the T-90M tank in 2023 and potentially up to 250-300 annually by 2024[1][4][5].
- The production focus is mainly on the T-90M model, with the T-90MS export variant stopping production around early to mid-2022 and upgraded T-90Ms featuring modern armor, optics, and a powerful 125mm cannon[2].
- Uralvagonzavod has expanded to a 24-hour production cycle, acquired new machinery, and pursued technical upgrades to enhance manufacturing capacity and efficiency[4].
- Future Prospects Considering Finite Supply of Old Tanks
- Russia is nearly out of older usable tanks, necessitating reliance on new T-90M tank production and possibly modernizing remaining older models[4].
- Open-source analysts estimate that Russia can maintain its armored vehicle levels for at least several more years due to current production and consumption rates[5].
- Potential Challenges
- Sanctions and wartime pressures may impact supply chains and long-term sustainability, but Russia has so far managed to increase output despite these constraints[1].
- Strategic Intent
- Besides replacing losses from the Ukraine conflict, Russia appears to be building up a small reserve of T-90M tanks for future contingencies, including hypothetical conflicts with NATO[1].
- Despite the increased production of military assets, the emphasis on restoring older models raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of Russia's employment policy in its defense industry, particularly in relation to the production of battle tanks.
- In the context of politics, the ongoing war-and-conflicts in Eastern Europe, specifically the war in Ukraine, have set off a flurry of general-news reports about the strategic capabilities of both Russia and NATO, including updates on their respective employment and community policies in the defense sector.
