Increased Political Unrest in U.S. Elections: Might the Ugliness Intensify Further?
The upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election is shrouded in uncertainty, with concerns about political violence and post-election disputes looming large. The peaceful transfer of power, a minimal definition of democratic success, is under threat as America prepares for another pivotal moment in its political history.
In the past, leaders have graciously accepted defeat, such as Al Gore in 2000, who honouredably conceded after the Supreme Court's decision to stop the recount. However, the current political climate is markedly different, with the obvious but chilling possibility that a candidate could be seriously harmed or even killed.
Recent events have underscored these concerns. Donald Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt at his golf course in Pennsylvania, just nine weeks after a less threatening attempt on his life. These incidents have raised alarm bells and could potentially boost support among Trump's backers and the undecided.
Trump has accused Kamala Harris and Joe Biden of creating an atmosphere of hatred and distrust through their rhetoric, a claim that risks alienating moderate swing voters. This accusation comes as the Trump administration has reportedly engaged in systemic efforts to undermine electoral and judicial institutions, contributing to democratic backsliding.
The Trump administration's actions, including unfounded claims of election fraud, pardoning or targeting participants of the January 6 insurrection, and pressuring federal prosecutors and judges, have fueled political polarization and threatened the very foundations of democracy.
Moreover, research suggests that incumbents may resort to both direct and delegated electoral violence to suppress challengers, protect "rents" or power benefits, and avoid conceding defeat. This violence complements other illicit strategies like electoral fraud, particularly when costs of violence are low.
The deep partisan divides over election legitimacy are another cause for concern. Large proportions of Republicans prioritize concerns about voter fraud, while Democrats are more concerned about voter disenfranchisement, reflecting divergent grievances that can exacerbate tensions and fuel disputes post-election.
Furthermore, federal law enforcement task forces focused on “election integrity” are reportedly used to investigate and target perceived political adversaries, election officials, and advocates, threatening the free and fair administration of elections.
These factors suggest that increased political violence and post-election disputes could lead to greater instability, challenges to the peaceful transfer of power, erosion of democratic norms, and heightened social and political conflict in the U.S. following the 2024 presidential election.
If a candidate were to be killed or seriously injured, it could throw the election into confusion and lead to violent disorder. The latest attempt on Trump's life could be a significant moment in the presidential campaign, with real, justified fears for the safety of not just Trump, but also J.D. Vance, Harris, Biden, and Tim Walz.
As the election approaches, it is crucial for voters to believe in the fairness of the election process and trust its outcome. The Economist warns that the signs are not good for a peaceful outcome, and it is imperative that all political actors work towards maintaining the integrity of the democratic process and ensuring a smooth transition of power, regardless of the result.
References:
- Maher, B. (2020). Bill Maher: 'We're seeing a slow-moving coup' in America. [Interview]. CNN.
- Chandra, S. (2014). Violence and Elections. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(3), 71-90.
- Levitsky, S., & Ziblatt, D. (2018). How Democracies Die. Crown.
- Pew Research Center. (2020). Public trust in election systems is unchanged, but partisan divisions remain wide.
- The Washington Post. (2021). Trump administration targeted election officials in at least 20 states, documents show.
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