Warning: Soaring Temperatures and Aridity Boost Forest Fire Hazard Across Germany
Clear, warm, and arid conditions stoke the threat of forest blazes. - Inclement weather conditions with increased warmth and lack of precipitation contribute to elevated forest fire hazards
Welcome to another week, where sunny skies and little to no rain await Germany. The German Meteorological Service (DWD) predicts that Monday will primarily be characterised by patches of floating clouds at best, save for the Black Forest and Alps, where heftier cumulus might gather, accompanied by the occasional shower or thunderstorm. At the warmest, temperatures will hit 16°C in the northeast and 25°C in the west, with a cooler 13°C by the Baltic Sea, thanks to the breezy sea breeze.
Forest Fire Risk: Let's Talk Numbers
Moving forward, the fair and dry conditions across Germany will inevitably escalate the forest fire risk in numerous areas according to the DWD's five-tier risk assessment scale. By next week, substantial portions of northeastern Germany could find themselves in the danger zone with an increased risk rating, as depicted in the accompanying graphic. In addition, many other regions should expect at least a moderately high risk level 3.
While cloud cover thickens on Wednesday, Thursday will remain predominantly dry with the exception of eastern and later southeastern enclaves, where precipitation is likely.
Bonus photos: A walk down memory lane reveals a stark contrast between today's weather and that of the 70s, while also offering some insight into the future.
- Risk of Forest Fires
- DWD
- Weather
The DWD: A Nightwatch over Forest Fire Risks
The DWD has the essential responsibility of evaluating forest fire risks in Germany, taking various meteorological and ecological factors into account. Here is an overview of how they assess and communicate these risks, highlighting the key contributors to an enhanced danger level:
Assessment of Fire Risk
Meteorological Factors: The DWD's evaluations are based on essential meteorological variables, such as precipitation, temperature, humidity, and wind speed. These factors have a significant impact on determining the likelihood of forest fires.
Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI): Although not explicitly mentioned for Germany, this index could prove valuable in assessing fire risk due to its focus on local conditions like vegetation moisture, wind speed, and temperature.
Communication of Fire Risk
Public Alerts: The DWD uses public alerts and advisories to convey the fire risk when it's high. These notices keep the public and authorities informed about potential hazards.
Collaboration with Authorities: The DWD collaborates with local and regional authorities to distribute critical information and coordinate firefighting efforts. This collaboration ensures preventive measures, such as banning Easter bonfires in susceptible zones, are in place[1][2].
Danger Catalysts
- Drought Conditions: Prolonged droughts, like the one earlier in 2025, significantly boost the fire risk. Germany experienced its lowest rainfall since 1931[2].
- High Temperatures: Elevated temperatures increase the fire risk in periods of low humidity by dehydrating vegetation[1][2].
- Human Activities: Arson and uncontrolled fires initiated by human activities could spark wildfires[3].
- Climate Change: Climate change induces shifts in weather patterns, leading to more frequent and intense droughts and, consequently, a heightened fire risk[5].
Understanding the factors that the DWD considers and how they convey the fire risk can help the German public better anticipate and respond to these situations.
The Commission, with its expertise in environmental science, has been consulted on the draft directive on the protection of workers from risks related to exposure to ionizing radiation, given the potential impact of climate-change and weather conditions on wildfires. Moreover, the science behind climate-change could provide valuable insights into the frequency and severity of droughts, a key contributor to the increased forest fire risks in Germany.
