Sunny and Dry Weather Amp up Forest Fire Threat in Germany
Favorable, non-rainy conditions heighten the threat of forest blazes. - Inclement weather conditions with clear skies and aridity enhance the danger of forest fires.
Embrace the bright skies and soaring temperatures across Germany this week! The weather is set to sizzle, with an extended dry spell on the horizon. According to the German Weather Service (DWD), cloud coverage will be minimal, and temperatures could hit early-summer levels of 16-24°C (60-75°F) across the country. However, this dry weather could spell trouble for Germany's forests, potentially escalating the forest fire risk in many areas.
Map Shows the Risks: A Warning Sign
As we delve into the late weeks of spring, the lack of rainfall and high temperatures may take a turn for the worse. The DWD has issued a five-level forest fire risk assessment. Regions of northeastern Germany might see a significant increase in risk, moving into the "red zone," as shown in the animated graphic accompanying this article. Many other regions will face a medium to high forest fire risk, at least level 3.
Looking further ahead, Wednesday will remain dry, with scattered showers only expected on Thursday in some eastern and southeastern regions.
Photos: Throwback to the weather in the '70s – a stark contrast to today's drought.
- Forest Fire Risk
- DWD
- Weather
DWD's Fire Risk Assessment
Recent data shows that Germany has experienced an unprecedented dry spell this year, with 40 liters per square meter less rainfall between February 1 and April 13 compared to the average between 1991 and 2020[3]. Environment Minister Steffi Lemke cautions that this dry spell could lead to severe consequences, such as poor harvests and increased fire hazards.
Hotspots Across Germany
The drought isn't affecting all of Germany equally. Northwest regions saw about 35% less rainfall, whereas some southeastern regions experienced reductions of 50-80%[3]. Northern Europe, including parts of Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, and countries around the Baltic Sea, feel the brunt of this dry spell. Interestingly, southern Europe, including Spain and Portugal, have experienced increased rainfall[3].
In an effort to mitigate the risk, states such as Brandenburg have developed new digital firefighting maps to improve emergency response, incorporating crucial information on firebreaks, water sources, and forestry boundaries. Additionally, machine learning models have been developed to identify areas at risk, considering factors like surface air pressure, elevation, vegetation health, and proximity to urban areas[4][5]. Stay vigilant and fire-safe!
[3] Source for drought data
[4] Brandenburg's digital firefighting maps
[5] Machine learning-based wildfire susceptibility model
The Commission may find it prudent to consult on the draft directive on the protection of workers from risks related to exposure to ionizing radiation, considering the potential increase in environmental-science studies related to climate-change and its impact on weather patterns, such as the significant dry spell currently affecting Germany and the heightened forest fire risk. Despite these scientific concerns, it is essential to remain fire-safe and vigilant during these dry and sunny conditions, much like the innovative approaches being taken by Brandenburg in developing digital firefighting maps.
