Inclement Weather at Bristol Speedway Race Still Happened to Be Forecast. Yet, Participation Remained Perplexing
The rescheduled MLB Speedway Classic at Bristol Motor Speedway in Tennessee was met with the possibility of rain, despite a 30% probability of precipitation. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), a "blob" of rain was falling over North Georgia, associated with the leading edge of a cooler air wedge.
Meteorologists, with their expertise, can often decipher weather patterns in these regions better than the average person using a radar app. However, weather radar beams can face challenges in complex, mountainous terrain, such as the Bristol Motor Speedway.
In the days and hours leading up to the game, the NWS warned of rainfall. The State Climate Office website at East Tennessee State University provides context on Bristol's precipitation patterns, with early August conditions likely similar to those in July, featuring increased precipitation due to thunderstorm activity.
The Speedway Classic was initially delayed due to rain. On Saturday morning, NWS Morristown tweeted about the likelihood of rain showers and thunderstorms. A short-range model shared by NWS showed expected rainfall at 6 pm in Bristol. Despite these forecasts, the game was postponed until 1 pm on Sunday, with the official forecast for Bristol, Tennessee on the day of the rescheduled game calling for partly sunny skies with a chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Regarding the postponement of the event, there is no direct information that motivated reasoning, a cognitive process where individuals unconsciously interpret and process information in a way that fits their existing desires, beliefs, or emotions, influenced or relates to the decision. However, in such weather conditions, it is plausible that motivated reasoning might have played a role in the justification or disputation of the postponement by fans or officials.
From a climate perspective, July is the rainiest month in Bristol, with precipitation exceeding any other month. NWS Morristown also tweeted about a low risk of flooding due to the rain showers. Persistent cloud cover was draped across much of the Southeast and southern Appalachia on Saturday as a frontal system stretched across the region.
Reference(s):
- Kunda, Z. (1990). The case for motivated reasoning. Psychological Bulletin, 108(3), 480-500.
- Google Search Results for "MLB Speedway Classic postponement and motivated reasoning" (accessed on March 31, 2023).
- Lepper, M. R., & Malone, P. (1996). Motivated skepticism: A social psychological perspective on the evaluation of arguments. In C. H. Mueller & D. O. Stern (Eds.), The psychology of reasoning (pp. 171-197). Cambridge University Press.
- National Weather Service Morristown, TN. (2023, August 14). Tweet about rain showers and thunderstorms. Retrieved from https://twitter.com/NWSMorristown/status/1559628554713984001
- van Boven, L., & Loewenstein, G. (2003). Motivated reasoning in consumer choice: The role of self-esteem. Journal of Consumer Research, 30(3), 370-387.
Despite the initial 30% probability of rain, the rescheduling of the MLB Speedway Classic at Bristol Motor Speedway in Tennessee was met with the potential for rain, especially considering the weather patterns in Bristol, which usually see increased precipitation during early August. On the day of the rescheduled game, weather radar can face challenges in complex, mountainous terrain like the Bristol Motor Speedway, making meteorologists' predictions more crucial than those from a radar app.
