In Venezuela, the Legislative and Regional Elections Take Place Under the Shadow of a Split Opposition Facing a United Government
Ten months post the presidential elections that saw Nicolás Maduro's fresh term, pro-government political forces are readying themselves to tackle an opposition grappling with internal divisions and factional disputes.
The elections slated for May 25 will select 277 members of the National Assembly (unicameral parliament), 24 state governors, and members of regional legislative councils. Keeping in mind that the electoral campaign is just getting off the ground, surveys and grassroots observations persistently indicate low voter turnout for these contests.
United Front vs Divided Opposition
The United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and its associated organizations have developed proposals specific to each electoral district and have already initiated a nationwide campaign under the catchy slogan "Gente que resuelve" ["People who solve problems"]. The ruling coalition faces a formidable challenge in the country's precarious economic state, despite some recovery compared to the 2nd half of the previous decade. Complicating matters, there's an atmosphere of dread creeping back in, triggered by concerns of a return to the harshest economic times, exacerbated by fears of renewed U.S. blockades and pressure.
While economic stability has been sustained, it's now under threat due to new inflationary waves and a significant rise in the unofficial dollar exchange rate, which has become the benchmark for commercial transactions. Public dissatisfaction mounts over service delivery issues, particularly blackouts and cooking gas availability, which particularly frustrate residents in the interior regions of the country. Another Achilles heel for the government includes candidate selection. The PSUV, backed by a major propaganda campaign, encouraged grassroots to nominate potential candidates in March. However, many popular contenders from the primary process didn't make it onto the official ballot, with low-profile figures with ties to the PSUV's inner circle now listed as candidates instead.
The PSUV leadership relies on three critical advantages: an efficient electoral machinery, the opposition's disarray, and a surge of Chavista supporters eager to exercise their voting rights. PSUV Vice President for Electoral Affairs, Jorge Rodríguez, sees a highly symbolic victory, with a participation of over 7,000 candidates nationwide, representing 53 political organizations, and numerous national candidate lists for the AN. He believes that abstention will be overcome, and the people will demonstrate their commitment to democracy by voting in record numbers.
In contrast, opposition figures bank on very low participation to claim a political win. Those participating in the elections repeatedly urge the public to vote as the ultimate protest tactic. Some surveys, leaning toward the extreme right, predict complete voter turnout failure, while others, favoring more balance, initially estimate a 33% participation rate, with a potential rise to 45%.
Rival Opposition Factions
The opposition approaches the electoral race splintered into two main camps: those registered to participate, and those advocating for abstention. The abstentionist faction, led by radical figure María Corina Machado, bases their stance on allegations of electoral fraud in the 2021 presidential elections. Machado alleges that Edmundo González Urrutia was the actual winner but was denied victory by the government, supported by the electoral and judicial branches. She argues that voting in these legislative and regional elections would validate the National Electoral Council (CNE) she accuses of orchestrating electoral manipulations.
Those in the opposition who have chosen to register candidates continue to publicly maintain broad denunciations of electoral fraud concerning the presidential vote. However, they claim that abstaining at this point would hand over political power to the government. They point to past experiences, such as the 2005 legislative elections and the 2018 and 2020 presidential elections, where abstaining from participating allowed the government to seize control.
The rivalry between the two opposition factions is now deeper than their opposition to the government. Abstentionists label the registered candidates "traitors," and their common term for alleged government collaborators, "alacranes," has found a new target - those who have abandoned their radical stance to run as candidates themselves.
Overall, the Venezuelan political landscape leading up to the May 25 elections is characterized by deep divisions within the opposition, a divided federal government, and a history of contentious elections marked by voter apathy, allegations of electoral manipulations, and strategies aimed at furthering political agendas.
- The upcoming elections in Venezuela on May 25 will select various positions, including members of the National Assembly, state governors, and members of regional legislative councils.
- The United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and its associated organizations have launched a nationwide campaign for the elections with the slogan "Gente que resuelve."
- PSUV Vice President for Electoral Affairs, Jorge Rodríguez, believes that a high participation rate will be achieved due to an efficient electoral machinery, the opposition's disarray, and a surge of Chavista supporters.
- In contrast, some opposition figures bank on very low participation to claim a political win, urging the public to vote as the ultimate protest tactic. Some surveys predict a potential rise in voter turnout from 33% to 45%.
- The opposition is split into two main factions: those registered to participate, and those advocating for abstention. The abstentionist faction, led by María Corina Machado, argues that voting would validate the National Electoral Council accused of orchestrating electoral manipulations.
