A New Era of Support: Merz in Ukraine vs Scholz - Ukrainians Take Notice
In Ukraine, they are acknowledging that Merz is not equivalent to Scholtz
Friedrich Merz's trip to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, joined by UK, France, and Poland leaders, bolsters Ukraine's back with the "Coalition of the Willing" and cranks up the heat on the Kremlin with a demand. The Chancellor sends a powerful message.
Ukrainians hold high hopes for the new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, if not sky-high expectations. While the emotional political landscape in Ukraine is notorious, some of Merz's statements, like those regarding the long-anticipated Taurus cruise missiles, have sparked near-euphoria in Kyiv and its surroundings for a brief moment.
The Ukrainian experience with the West isn't just complex since the U-turn in US policy under Donald Trump's second term. Ukrainians have known since the meek response to the 2014 Crimean annexation that, in the worst-case scenario, they are on their own, as unpalatable as that might sound.
Still, Merz's visit just days after his rocky induction signifies an important signal from the Ukrainian perspective. Accompanied by French President Emmanuel Macron and the two Prime Ministers, Keir Starmer from the UK and Donald Tusk from Poland, Merz journeys to lead a summit of the "Coalition of the Willing" with Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Politics - Merz in Kyiv vs Trump's Cold Peace Push "Takes a Stand - With More Sanctions"
Ukrainians particularly appreciate the contrast with Olaf Scholz. Under the former Chancellor, German-Ukrainian relationships hit their zenith despite the battles. Scholz and Zelenskyy even switched to the informal "you" in 2023. However, the SPD politician only traveled to Ukraine twice since the Russian full-scale invasion. Former Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock managed nine visits.
The external political backdrop for Merz's initial visit to Kyiv as Chancellor is challenging. Since Donald Trump's inauguration, the US President has persistently attempted, largely in vain, to broker a ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Trump has pressured Ukraine more than Russia in his ceasefire endeavors. While Kyiv is ready for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, Moscow continues to demand unacceptable preconditions. Yesterday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov highlighted Russia's readiness, subject to careful deliberations. These discussions include the cessation of Western weapons deliveries to Ukraine and the halt of Ukrainian army mobilization. Despite the uncertainty, Ukraine must still find a way to defend itself if Russia breaks the ceasefire.
Politics - "United Free World"; Macron: USA to Monitor Ukraine Ceasefire Apart from that, the two previous ceasefire attempts, at Easter and now for three days around the so-called "Victory Day" on May 9th, have illustrated the intricacies of the situation in practice. While the number of long-range air strikes on Ukrainian territory has declined in both cases, it provides little comfort to the Ukrainian populace, who have experienced more intense attacks at the onset of this week. Ground battles and air strikes on frontline areas persisted unabated.
Especially in the case of the "ceasefire" around May 9th, the question remains whether it was not primarily necessary to ensure the safety of the annual military parade in Moscow. Now, the joint proposal of Ukraine, the "Coalition of the Willing", and the USA is on the table: a complete, unconditional ceasefire starting May 12th, monitored by the Americans. Merz is said to have discussed this with Trump on the phone - both alone and today from Kyiv. If Russia rejects the offer, fresh sanctions are threatened.
Merz Bets on Strategic Ambiguity
At present, this is an uncomfortable situation for the Kremlin, initially enjoying near-perfect strategic advantage with Trump. The fact that Ukraine and the most important Western states agreed on a specific proposal is owed to the fact that Germany now has a federal chancellor who appears prepared to draw a clear line against Russian aggression.
Politics - "Ukraine Offers Putin a 30-Day Ceasefire After Talks with Trump" However, it is scarcely conceivable that Russia will genuinely accept the offer and not counter with a classic "Yes, but." There are still sanctions yet to be imposed and could inflict considerable pain on Moscow. Despite Peskov's statement that Russia has learned to weather sanctions and mitigate their impact. Almost the only way to deter Russia from its conquest designs in Ukraine is to boost military support for the country, particularly from the USA. The likelihood of Donald Trump doing this is still uncertain. It's far more probable that the USA will not ship additional aid to Ukraine when the consent given by Congress under Joe Biden runs out.
In this scenario, Germany and the new federal chancellor Merz will play a pivotal role. A positive development from Ukraine's perspective: "Under my leadership, the debate on weapons deliveries, calibers, and weapon systems will be taken out of the public eye," emphasized Merz in Kyiv. Months of public discussions about weapon systems haven't necessarily resulted in the "strategic ambiguity" necessary in such a war - giving Russia ample time to prepare for associated scenarios.
Taurus Won't Tip the Balance
However, the Taurus debate driven by Merz also played a partly negative role for an different reason. Undeniably, Ukraine requires the Taurus to more effectively target Russian military infrastructure even on Russian territory. But with a limited number of Taurus cruise missiles, Ukraine won't have a significant impact.
Politics - "Shove Peace Plans Up Your Ass"; Diverging Statements from Moscow Furthermore, increasing the production of artillery ammunition and armored technology remains the top priority. Debates about individual weapon systems deflect attention from the daily brutal war of attrition.
What Ukrainians might find particularly encouraging: It seems that the personal chemistry between Merz and Selenskyj is considerably better than that between Selenskyj and Scholz. Upon departing the Kyiv Mariinsky Palace, where high-ranking foreign guests are usually welcomed, Merz assured his Ukrainian counterparts that he is always available for a call. Selenskyj may seize this offer more frequently.
Source: ntv.de
- Attack on Ukraine
- Ukraine
- Volodymyr Zelensky
- Friedrich Merz
- Emmanuel Macron
- Keir Starmer
- Russia
- Donald TrumpThe visit of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to Ukraine, accompanied by other European leaders, underscores a shift in Germany's stance towards Ukraine and its relationship with Western allies contrasting with the previous Scholz administration. Significant impacts and differences include:
Impact on Relations with Ukraine:
- Solidarity and Support: By visiting Ukraine, Chancellor Merz demonstrates a strong show of solidarity, emphasizing Germany's commitment to supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression. This visit, coupled with Merz's hardline stance against Russia, likely strengthens Ukraine's perception of Germany as a dependable ally[1][4].
- Military Aid and Policy: Merz has expressed support for providing more substantial military aid to Ukraine, including combat aircraft, to help restore Ukrainian airspace sovereignty[5]. In contrast, Scholz was cautious about sending heavy weaponry, emphasizing the importance of sovereignty but hesitating on certain types of military aid[5].
Comparison with Scholz's Administration:
- Rhetoric and Policy: Under Chancellor Merz, Germany's rhetoric towards Russia is noticeably harsher compared to Scholz's administration. Merz shows a willingness to confront Russia more directly, which could lead to a stronger alliance with other Western countries supporting Ukraine[4][5].
- International Cooperation: The joint visit with other European leaders like Macron and Starmer signifies a unified Western approach to pressuring Russia into a ceasefire. This collaborative effort aligns with Merz's support for a proposed 30-day ceasefire facilitated by US mediators, reflecting a strategic shift towards more concerted international pressure on Russia compared to Scholz's approach[1][2][3].
In summary, Merz's leadership is characterized by a more assertive stance on military support and a harsher diplomatic tone toward Russia, potentially fortifying Germany's alliance with Ukraine and other Western partners. Nevertheless, the practical implications of these changes remain to be seen over time.
- Friedrich Merz's visit to Ukraine, accompanied by European leaders, signifies a stronger stance against Russian aggression compared to the previous administration, offering Ukraine a sense of increased support from Europe.
- Chancellor Merz's hardline stance and willingness to provide more substantial military aid to Ukraine contrasts with the Scholz administration's cautious position on sending heavy weaponry.
- The joint visit with European leaders, like Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer, signals a unified Western approach to pressuring Russia into a ceasefire, aligning with Merz's support for a proposed 30-day ceasefire facilitated by US mediators.
- The dialogues between Germany, the Ukrainian government, and the United States focus on implementing a ceasefire and resolving the ongoing conflict, with talks about the potential involvement of the United Nations Charter and the UN Charter.
- Keir Starmer, as part of the joint visit with Macron, Dusk, and Merz, joins debates about the future of Ukraine's foreign relations and potential solutions to the conflict.
