Germans and Ukrainians Rally Together: Merz Offers Fresh Wind
In Ukraine, it's becoming clear that Merz is not a Scholz counterpart
In the heart of Eastern Europe, there's an electricity in the air. Newly appointed Chancellor Friedrich Merz embarks on a groundbreaking trip to Kyiv, alongside the leaders from UK, France, and Poland, aiming to revitalize Ukraine's backbone with a powerful message for the Kremlin.
The Ukrainian public greets Merz with heightened expectations, a sentiment that might be too strong for Western standards, yet all too familiar for this passionate nation. Merz's affirmative statements, such as his thoughts on the awaited Taurus cruise missiles, have stirred near-frenzy in Kyiv and its vicinity.
However, the story of Ukraine is more than complicated – far beyond recent turnbacks in U.S. policy during Donald Trump's second term. Ukraine has felt the bitter sting of inadequate responses since 2014, realizing that the worst-case scenario is an uncomfortable truth: they might be alone, no matter how harsh that may sound.
Nevertheless, Merz's visit just a few days into his office term is seen as a significant shift from the Ukrainian perspective. Joined by French President Emmanuel Macron and the two Prime Ministers, Keir Starmer from the UK and Donald Tusk from Poland, Merz journeys to Kyiv to co-host a summit of the "Coalition of the Willing" with Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Trump's Diplomatic Dance, To No Avail
The daunting geopolitical landscape of Merz's first visit to Kyiv as Chancellor presents itself in full force. Since stepping into the spotlight, U.S. President Donald Trump has been trying, in vain, to bring a ceasefire to the Russian-Ukrainian war. While Ukraine has been prepared for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire since day one, Russia continues to demand unacceptable preconditions. Yesterday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized that they are, in principle, ready, yet numerous "nuances" persist. These include the cessation of Western weapons deliveries to Ukraine and the halt of the Ukrainian army's mobilization. The question of how Ukraine can defend itself remains unclear should Russia violate the ceasefire.
Ceasefires Gone Awry: The Hard Truth About Momentary Truces
The previous two attempts at ceasefire, around Easter and now for three days around the so-called "Victory Day" on 9 May, have offered a grim reminder of the complexities shrouding the conflict. Though long-range air strikes on the Ukrainian hinterland decreased in both instances, it made little difference to the people in Ukraine, as they were still the target of heavier attacks at the beginning of the week. Ground battles and air strikes on frontline areas continued uninterrupted.
Especially in the case of the "ceasefire" around 9 May, the question arises as to whether it was not primarily necessary to ensure the safety of the annual military parade in Moscow. The joint proposal from Ukraine, the "Coalition of the Willing," and the USA is now on the table: a comprehensive, unconditional ceasefire from 12 May onwards, monitored by the Americans. Merz is said to have discussed this with Trump in recent days – alone and from Kyiv. Should Russia reject the offer, new sanctions will follow.
Strategic Vagueness: Merz Places Bets on Uncertainty
For the moment, this presents a less-than-desirable scenario for the Kremlin, which enjoyed an almost perfect strategic position under Trump. The fact that Ukraine, significant Western states, and Germany agreed on a concrete proposal can be attributed largely to the fact that Germany finally has a federal chancellor who seems primed to draw a clear line against Russian aggression.
However, it is highly unlikely that Russia will agree to the offer and not issue its signature "Yes, but." There are still sanctions waiting to be imposed that could impose considerable pain on Moscow. Even though Peskov has stated that Russia has learned to adapt to sanctions and minimize their consequences, almost the only way to deter Russia from its conquest plans in Ukraine is to increase military support for the country, specifically from the USA. It remains unclear whether Donald Trump intends to do this in the near future. It is more plausible that the USA will not provide further supplies to Ukraine when the support approved by Congress under Joe Biden runs dry.
The Art of Public Diplomacy: Merz Breathes Life into the Conflict
In Merz's perspective, it appears that the personal chemistry between him and Selenskyj is much better than that between Selenskyj and Scholz. Upon departure from the Mariinsky Palace in Kyiv, where high-ranking foreign guests are usually received, Merz assured his Ukrainian counterpart that he can always call him. Selenskyj is likely to take advantage of this offer more often.
Yet, it isn't merely the personal relationship that sets the stage for renewed momentum. According to Merz, he intends to move the debate on arms deliveries, calibers, and weapons systems out of the public eye, aiming to achieve the "strategic ambiguity" needed in such a war. Months of public discussions about weapons systems have not necessarily led to this ambiguity – giving Russia ample time to prepare for corresponding scenarios.
A Question of Priorities: The Real Battle on Ukraine's Frontlines
Despite the controversy surrounding the Taurus debate initiated by Merz, it is undeniable that Ukraine desperately needs the Taurus to more effectively target Russian military infrastructure on Russian territory. However, a limited number of Taurus cruise missiles will not make a massive difference. Increasing the production of artillery ammunition and armored vehicles remains the top priority. Conversations about individual weapons systems could divert attention from the daily brutal war of attrition that continues to rage on Ukraine's frontlines.
Sources:
- Exclusive: Ukraine's Zelenskiy Invites Putin for Talks
- Merz to Travel to Kyiv for Four-Power Summit with Zelenskyy
- Kremlin Says Ready for Ceasefire, but With Conditions, Reuters, May 7, 2023
- Ceasefire deal for Ukraine broken by Russia, officials say
- Ukraine urges restoration of pre-2014 borders with Russia as condition for talks,
- Ukraine and Russia clash over gas pipeline amid ceasefire negotiations
- Trump Calls for Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire, but Only With Conditions
- Attack on Ukraine
- Ukraine
- Volodymyr Zelensky
- Friedrich Merz
- Emmanuel Macron
- Keir Starmer
- Russia
- Donald Trump
- Ceasefires
- Mobilization
- U.S Sanctions
- Weapon Deliveries
- German-Ukrainian Relations
- Donald Trump’s Peace Push
- Taurus Cruise Missiles
- Artillery Ammunition
- Armored Vehicles
- Military Parade
- "Coalition of the Willing"
- Donald Medvedev
- NATO
- Strategic Ambiguity
- The European Union, committed to a comprehensive and comprehensive policy on the environment, Chancellor Friedrich Merz is ready to lead on geopolitical issues, as demonstrated in his talks about a ceasefire with Russia regarding the ongoing war-and-conflicts in Ukraine.
- Merz's visit to Kyiv was seen as a fresh wind, a strategic shift from the Ukrainian perspective, as he co-hosted a summit of the "Coalition of the Willing" with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer from the UK, and Donald Tusk from Poland.
- Despite renewed attempts at negotiations, the ceasefires proposed have fallen apart, leaving the general-news media reporting continued violence and military clashes in Ukraine. Amidst this, Merz aims to move conversations about weapons systems out of the public eye to achieve strategic ambiguity in the ongoing conflict.
- An important component of Ukraine's defense strategy is the production of artillery ammunition and armored vehicles, key to their daily brutal war of attrition on the frontlines. Controversies surrounding the Taurus cruise missiles, initiated by Merz, may divert attention from these crucial priorities.
