In the latest polling, Mamdani is 19 points ahead of Cuomo, while Stefanik is narrowing the gap with Hochul
In a recent Siena College poll, the race for the 2026 New York gubernatorial election is showing signs of tightening. Rep. Elise Stefanik, who has been critical of Gov. Kathy Hochul's performance, has seen a significant improvement in her support since July.
The poll, conducted between Aug. 4 and 7, indicates that Hochul currently leads Stefanik by 14 points, with 45% of voters supporting the incumbent governor compared to 31% for Stefanik. This is a narrowing of the gap from a 23-point lead that Hochul held in June.
Voters' familiarity with Stefanik appears to be improving, with 49% saying they are very or somewhat familiar with her, compared to 46% who are not. However, only about 29% of voters believe Stefanik has the right experience to be governor, and 49% think her election would be detrimental to New York.
Independent voters are roughly split on her qualifications, while Republican support for Stefanik has grown from 55% in June to 75% by August. This shift in support has helped narrow the race.
The poll also found that Mamdani, an Assembly Member, continues to lead the pack among New York City mayoral candidates, with a 19-point lead over Andrew Cuomo. Mamdani leads Cuomo by 49 percentage points among voters aged 18 to 34 but trails Cuomo by 6 points among voters 55 years and older.
The poll did not include any information about the support for other candidates like Curtis Sliwa and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams.
The Siena College poll, with a margin of error of 4.2%, also found that voters are split on a proposal to change the state constitution to permit mid-decade redistricting. Only a plurality of Democrats back the proposal, with 45% supporting it.
In summary, while Stefanik's recognition and support have grown since June, she remains less familiar to roughly half the electorate and faces challenges in expanding favorable impressions beyond core Republican voters. The race for the 2026 New York gubernatorial election is shaping up to be a closely contested one.
[1] Siena College Research Institute Poll, August 2025 [2] Siena College Research Institute Poll, June 2025 [3] CNN, August 2025 [4] NBC News, August 2025 [5] The New York Times, August 2025
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