Can Europe Stand Firm Against Russia's Advance? Let's Break It Down
Could Europe sustain a military confrontation with Russia in a crisis situation? - In the hypothetical scenario, would Europe be capable of resisting Russian aggression?
by Chris Jones* Estimated Reading Time: 5 Min*
The table is set for Europe to beef up its defenses, pronto. That's the word from the new sheriff in town - Donald Trump - before taking the White House. With him reclaiming the top gig, the old world can't count on Uncle Sam's military muscle anymore. He isn't shy about it, causing a stir with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky. With Washington stepping back, Moscow and Kyiv dance a tango, sans Brussels, of course.
The EU's chopping wood, getting ready for the ultimate showdown. If Russia takes Ukraine and Putin ain't satisfied, he could swing Europe's way by 2030, says a strategy report. Europe is scrambling to gather its troops. Whether they'll hold their own against Russia remains to be seen.
Here's the lowdown on what Europe's got cooking in the kitchen:
Essential Strategies
- Hefty Defense Investments: The EU's eyeing a significant hike in defense spending to counter Russia. Their latest defense White Paper pushes for "hefty investment" over the long haul. France is pushing for defense spending to approach 3% to 3.5% of GDP.
- Strengthening Defense Industry: Europe's trying to bolster its defense industrial base by forging partnerships among member states and investing in essentials like ammunition production. This includes helping Ukraine's defense industry, which cranks out around 40% of its military stuff.
- European Defense Force Development: There's a push to create a more formidable European defense force. There's talk of beefing up the Franco-British Combined Joint Expeditionary Force (CJEF) into an "EU Plus" group. This would help pool resources with non-EU countries like the UK and Norway.
- Long-Range Strike Capabilities: Europe's working on developing its own long-range strike weapons, like a European-made ground-based cruise missile under the European Long-Range Strike Approach. Countries involved include France, Germany, Italy, and Poland, with goals by 2030.
Current Capabilities
- Air and Missile Defense: Europe's lacking comprehensive air and missile defense systems, a gap that needs closing. Building these systems is underway but faces hurdles.
- Ground Forces and Logistics: Building substantial combat-ready ground forces and fortifying logistics support are top priorities. This process is estimated to take 5 to 10 years.
- Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR): Improving ISR capabilities are crucial for effective deterrence, but these require significant investment.
- Industrial Capacity: The EU wants to boost production capacity by encouraging long-term investments in the defense sector and streamlining procurement procedures.
Challenges and Future Directions
Europe's got plenty on its plate. Gaining traction with sustained investment and reliance on NATO are significant obstacles. The goal is for a strong European defense posture by 2030, all while preserving alliances and partners. The EU's battle plan combines immediate moves, like restoring ammo and gear, with long-term strategies for capability development and industrial reinforcement.
Overall, Europe's plan involves immediate remedies for critical capability gaps and long-term strategies to guarantee strategic autonomy and effective deterrence against conceivable threats.
- The EU's proposed community policy includes substantial increases in defense spending, aiming to rely less on NATO by 2030, in light of potential ceasefire agreements between Ukraine and Russia.
- In an effort to boost the EU's self-sufficiency, employment policies are being considered to help Ukraine's defense industry, a significant contributor to the region's military equipment production.
- With unity being crucial in the face of Russia's advance, the employment policies of various EU countries are being closely aligned, a strategy that could pave the way for the creation of a unified European defense policy by 2030.
