In the era of college football playoffs, the AP Poll's significance is still undeniably prominent!
College Football's Preseason AP Poll: A Strong Indicator for National Title Contention
As the college football season edges closer, the preseason AP poll has been released, offering a glimpse into the teams that are expected to make a splash this year. But does a high ranking in the preseason AP poll guarantee a national championship? Not necessarily, but it does seem to increase a team's chances.
In the 2019 college football season, LSU, who ended up as champions, were ranked sixth in the preseason AP poll. This shows that even the top teams can have unexpected success, but a high ranking does seem to offer some advantage.
Interestingly, no team ranked number one in the preseason AP poll during the College Football Playoff era has won a championship, with Alabama being the last one in 2017. However, the second-ranked preseason team has accounted for five out of the 11 national championships in the CFP era.
For the 2025 season, the team with the best chance of winning the national championship based on preseason AP rankings and betting odds is Texas, ranked No. 1 in the preseason AP poll. They are also favored by oddsmakers with +500 odds to win the title. Following Texas, Ohio State, ranked No. 3 in the AP poll, is also a top contender with +525 odds, despite significant staff and roster changes.
Historically, starting in the top 5 or 6 of the AP preseason poll has been a strong indicator for national title contention. Going back to 2014, the average preseason ranking of the eventual national champion was 3.3.
However, it's important to note that a low preseason ranking, such as in the teens or twenties, may not be indicative of a team's chances of winning a national championship. For example, teams like Illinois and Oklahoma, who were ranked in the twenties in the preseason AP poll, have not fared well in recent years.
In summary, while the preseason AP poll rankings do not guarantee a national championship, they do seem to offer some insight into a team's chances. Starting in the top 5 or 6 of the AP preseason poll is a strong indicator for national title contention, with Texas currently seen as the best single bet to win the championship based on preseason rankings and odds.
So, while the preseason AP poll may not be the be-all and end-all of college football predictions, it does offer some interesting insights into the teams that are likely to make a splash this season.
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