In recent decades, Christmas trees have become less authentic on the charts

In recent times, the tradition of decking out a Christmas tree has experienced a shift in preference. According to a survey conducted by the American Christmas Tree Association, an advocacy group within the industry, an astounding 77% of Americans who displayed a tree this holiday season opted for an artificial one.

This trend towards synthetic trees is a gradual but persistent shift. According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which started tracking artificial tree imports in 1994, imports of artificial trees skyrocketed since the mid-1990s, and despite COVID-19-related supply chain issues, saw a significant increase in 2021.

Now, let's ponder over the possibilities of a real Christmas tree. Martha Gray, the CEO of the Real Christmas Tree Council, a trade association, shares that the natural tree industry has been gradually declining for 40-50 years. Real trees face tough competition due to the increasing realism of artificial trees and growing acceptance within households.

The industry took a significant hit during the 2008 recession, with the total number of nationally-sold real Christmas trees dropping from 19.3 million in 1998 to 12.8 million in 2009, representing a massive drop of 34%. This resulted in many Christmas tree farmers planting fewer trees, moving towards other types of crops, or even abandoning their businesses altogether.

Gray explains, "It's a mix of art and science and crystalline spheres," emphasizing that it takes an average of seven years to plant and mature a tree, sometimes even 10-15 years. Farmers must make educated guesses about what will be popular and sell well over the next decade or so at what price.

The import of Christmas trees from Canada has seen a rise, with statistics showing an average of 2 million imported trees between 2000 and 2015, projected to reach 2.8 million by 2022.

In Oregon, which is the largest producer of natural Christmas trees in the United States, contributing roughly a third of the 2019 market, Christmas tree farms have been struggling since 2008. According to statistics, the total number of farms in the state dropped from 1,590 in 2005 to 490 in 2020.

Tom Norby, President of the Pacific Northwest Christmas Tree Association and owner of Trout Creek Tree Farm in Corbett, Oregon, just east of Portland, shares, "Real estate prices ultimately destroyed many Christmas tree farms." Many farmers are selling trees at a loss, an unsustainable business model.

Norby, who initially thought he could manage the farm remotely, found that the turbulent market had no impact on his plans for continuing Trout Creek. The farm cultivates Noble Firs, which is the second-most popular Christmas tree in the United States.

Norby is a bit of a purist about his own trees. "It was always a noble fir," he says.

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Enrichment Data: The decline in the real Christmas tree market and the increase in artificial tree imports can be attributed to several factors:

1. Convenience and Durability: Artificial trees are often seen as more convenient and durable, offering reusability for several years, reducing the need for an annual tree purchase.
2. Cost-Effectiveness: While the initial cost of artificial trees is higher, they can prove more cost-effective in the long run. Real trees require annual purchases with additional disposal costs, whereas artificial trees can be reused multiple times, making them a more budget-friendly option.
3. Environmental Concerns: Some consumers prefer artificial trees due to environmental considerations. Real trees require resources for cultivation and transportation, and their disposal can present challenges. Artificial trees, crafted from materials like PVC, are seen as a more sustainable alternative.
4. Market Trends and Consumer Behavior: The global market for artificial Christmas trees is expected to experience significant growth, driven by increasing demand and technological advancements. By 2029, the market is projected to reach $3,146.02 million, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.94% from 2022 to 2029.
5. Consumer Preferences: Many consumers appreciate the ease of setup and maintenance of artificial trees and their consistent visual appeal.
6. Logistical Challenges: The availability of real trees can vary by region, particularly in areas with limited pine or fir forests. This logistical challenge can make it difficult for consumers to access a real tree, driving them towards artificial options.

These factors collectively influence the falling real Christmas tree market and the growing demand for artificial tree imports.