In Oil Industry Context, Trump's America perceives the forecast of oil demand reaching its zenith in 2030 as a stab in the back.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has recently released a report that sheds light on the future of global oil demand. According to the report, oil demand is expected to reach a plateau before 2030, estimated at 105.5 million barrels per day (mb/d).
This plateau is not a sign of a declining oil market, but rather a leveling off. The IEA report does not predict a peak in oil demand but a plateau, indicating a stabilisation rather than a decline.
One of the key findings of the report is the shifting oil dependence from energy to materials. Petrochemicals are expected to play an increasingly important role in oil consumption, representing more than 18 mb/d in 2030, or 17% of total consumption. This shift is primarily driven by the increasing role of petrochemicals in plastics, fibers, and packaging.
The country expected to have the largest increase in oil consumption is India, with an additional 1 mb/d of oil consumption by 2030. This increase can be attributed to the heavy reliance of India's agriculture sector on diesel.
Saudi Arabia, which has heavily invested in solar power, is expected to see the largest decrease in oil consumption.
In China, the expansion of high-speed rail with three billion annual passengers and 45,000 kilometers of lines is diverting some road and air traffic. As a result, Chinese oil demand in 2030 is expected to barely exceed that of 2024, despite China's economic growth.
The IEA's prediction of a plateau in oil demand is being met with criticism from Trump's America, who view it as a betrayal of the IEA's founding mission.
However, the report also highlights some positive developments. For Europe, the IEA's prediction confirms that climate policies are starting to have an effect. Electric vehicle sales, currently exceeding 20 million per year, are expected to save 5.4 million barrels of oil per day.
Comparatively, oil consumption per capita in France is 1,500 liters per year, and in the US, it is 3,400 liters per year.
In conclusion, the IEA's report provides a comprehensive overview of the future of global oil demand. While some countries will see an increase in consumption, others will see a decrease. The report also highlights the importance of climate policies and the shift in oil dependence from energy to materials.
