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In Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko navigates diplomatic relations amidst the influence of Trump and Putin

In an effort to gain recognition from Washington, five years after shutting down the Belarusian uprising, the authoritarian leader attempts to win favor by freeing political detainees, while avoiding jeopardizing its longstanding ties with Moscow.

In Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko navigates diplomatic maneuvers between Trump and Putin
In Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko navigates diplomatic maneuvers between Trump and Putin

In Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko navigates diplomatic relations amidst the influence of Trump and Putin

In recent months, Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian president, has been hosting high-level visits from U.S. officials at his grand presidential palace. These visits, by Christopher Smith, a high-ranking official of the U.S. State Department, and Keith Kellogg, a retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General and a prominent U.S. government official, mark a significant turn in Lukashenko's diplomatic engagements.

Lukashenko, who has been in power for five years following the Belarusian revolution he suppressed with ferocity, has been ostracized by the West due to his autocratic rule. However, despite ongoing Western sanctions, he has been able to host these high-level visits from the U.S.

Keith Kellogg, who served as national security advisor to Vice President Mike Pence and briefly as acting National Security Advisor, has taken a central part in diplomatic backchannel talks with Lukashenko. During his visit in June 2025, Kellogg led a U.S. delegation to Minsk to meet Lukashenko as part of efforts to influence peace negotiations in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Kellogg conveyed a harder line than usual to Lukashenko, emphasizing a lack of trust and that Belarus would need to take significant actions to demonstrate good intentions toward the peace process. The meeting was significant enough to appear on Belarus state TV, portrayed as a diplomatic breakthrough, though the private tone included Lukashenko rebuking one of Kellogg's colleagues for insufficient influence on President Trump.

John Cole, Kellogg’s deputy, also had engagements with Lukashenko discussing issues such as the release of political prisoners in Belarus, indicating an ongoing U.S. diplomatic effort to engage the Belarusian leader in broader geopolitical and human rights matters. Cole's account suggests Lukashenko is interested in improving relations with the U.S. and playing an active role in Ukraine-related negotiations as well.

The visits by Smith and Kellogg could potentially lead to a lessening of the Western sanctions imposed on Lukashenko. Lukashenko has been seeking opportunities to shake hands, particularly ones that can be captured by photographs, and these meetings could provide such opportunities.

These potential openings for dialogue between the U.S. and Belarus under Lukashenko's rule could signal a change in the West's approach towards Lukashenko due to their high-level positions in the U.S. government. However, it is important to note that Lukashenko's autocratic rule and human rights abuses remain a significant concern for the West.

References:

  1. Keith Kellogg Bio
  2. Kellogg's Meeting with Lukashenko
  3. Kellogg's Role in Ukraine Peace Negotiations
  4. Cole's Engagements with Lukashenko
  5. War-and-conflicts and politics have taken center stage in the diplomatic engagements between the U.S. and Belarus, as evidenced by the recent high-level visits by Christopher Smith and Keith Kellogg.
  6. In the realm of policy-and-legislation and general-news, Keith Kellogg, a prominent U.S. government official and former National Security Advisor, has been leading discussions with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko regarding the Ukraine-Russia conflict and human rights issues in Belarus.
  7. Crime-and-justice and politics have come into focus with the ongoing meetings between U.S. officials and Lukashenko, as seen in discussions regarding the release of political prisoners in Belarus and the military's role in conflict-resolution.

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