Improved forecast for farmers following a disappointing spring: projected yield for cereal crops
In a recent report by the Statistical Office, the current average harvest estimates for major UK grain types in 2025 show that winter barley yields overall are in line with the five-year average at about 6.7 t/ha, despite the dry spring that had previously raised concerns among farmers. However, yields vary widely from -29% to +19% compared to the five-year average across different farms and regions. Early winter wheat yields are reported as below average so far, but exact numbers relative to last year or the five-year average were not specified clearly in the UK data.
On the global stage, winter wheat production for 2025/26 is forecast slightly lower than last year at 1,345 million bushels in the United States, reduced by 36 million bushels mainly due to acreage and yield declines in some classes like Hard Red Winter. However, the all-wheat yield is up slightly, at 52.6 bushels per acre versus last month’s forecast. Spring wheat and durum are also forecast down from last year to 504 million and 80 million bushels respectively.
Regarding barley, the UK winter barley harvest is mostly done, with yield variability but on average meeting the five-year norm despite dry spring stress. Globally, barley stocks are expected to tighten, with imports rising, suggesting supply is not very abundant.
Here's a summary of the comparisons for 2025 vs last year and long-term average:
| Grain Type | Current Harvest Estimate | Comparison to Last Year | Comparison to Long-Term Average | |-------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | UK Winter Barley | ~6.7 t/ha, 92% harvested, variable yields | Above last year's level (qualitative) | In line with 5-year average (6.7 t/ha) | | UK Winter Wheat | Below average yields reported | Lower than last year (qualitative) | Below long-term average (qualitative) | | US Winter Wheat | 1,345 million bushels | Lower by 36 million bushels than last year | Yield up slightly per acre; overall production down | | US Spring Wheat | ~504 million bushels | Below last year | Below long-term average |
Overall, despite the dry spring, winter barley yields in the UK are holding close to average, while winter wheat yields are weaker. US wheat production overall is slightly down but yields are stable or marginally up. These mixed results reflect variability caused by weather conditions.
Economic and social policy discussions revolving around the upcoming farming season may bring forth considerations about the impact of weather conditions, as shown in the recent harvest estimates for winter barley and winter wheat in the UK and the United States. Despite a dry spring, winter barley yields in the UK are holding close to average, while winter wheat yields are weaker.
