Imported goods facing increased costs due to Trump's continued imposition of tariffs
The discussion on the podcast Consider This revolves around the consequences of President Trump's tariffs, with White House correspondent Danielle Kurtzleben and economic correspondent Scott Horsley leading the conversation.
On Thursday night, President Trump announced new tariff rates and a new deadline. However, the announced tariff rates are starting to impact job growth, according to new numbers from the Labor Department. The job growth slowed sharply this spring as a result of President Trump's earlier, worldwide tariffs.
The new tariff rates will not go into effect for most countries immediately, but at least a week later. The economic disruptions caused by the tariffs appear substantial and multifaceted, affecting job growth, consumer prices, sectoral output, and international relations.
Recent analyses show that U.S. real GDP growth is about 0.5 percentage points lower annually in 2025 and 2026 due to the tariffs, with a long-term persistent reduction of about 0.4% in GDP, equating to roughly $115 billion smaller economy each year in 2024 dollars. The unemployment rate has risen by 0.4 percentage points by the end of 2025 and is projected to increase by 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026. Payroll employment is estimated to be 500,000 jobs lower by the end of 2025 due to tariff effects.
While U.S. manufacturing output may see a modest increase of 2%, the tariff-induced losses in other sectors are larger. Construction output is expected to contract by 3.6% and agriculture by 0.8%, indicating a net negative effect on employment and output across the economy. Households face higher prices, with estimated costs increasing by an average of $2,400 in 2025 due to tariffs.
In California, tariffs have led to losses of over 64,000 jobs, added $25 billion in costs to households, and imposed $11.3 billion in tariff costs on local businesses from January through May 2025. The tariffs also disrupted supply chains and port operations, with the Port of Los Angeles functioning at only 70% capacity.
International reactions to the tariffs have been significant. Trade partners, such as Switzerland, face steep tariff increases, which impact industries like machinery, metalworking, and exports vital to their economies. Global market uncertainty and trade tensions have increased as a result.
Although tariffs raise government revenue, they produce significant negative dynamic revenue effects, reflecting reduced economic activity and tax base. Shortly after the release of the job growth numbers, President Trump announced he was firing the head of the government agency that produced the report.
The podcast Consider This is produced by Connor Donevan and Jason Fuller, with Sami Yenigun serving as the executive producer. Audio engineering for the podcast is done by Simon Lazlo Jansen. Sponsor-free episodes of Consider This can be accessed via Apple Podcasts or at the podcast's website. The email address for Consider This is considerthis@our website.
If these tariffs remain in place indefinitely, as modeled by recent analyses, the negative impacts on job growth and broader economic performance are likely to continue and potentially worsen. Furthermore, affected states like California have pursued legal action, arguing that the tariffs cause immediate and irreparable harm.
As the conversation continues, the hosts delve deeper into the various aspects of the tariffs' impact and discuss potential solutions and policy changes that could mitigate their negative effects. Tune in to Consider This for more in-depth analysis and discussion on this pressing issue.
[1] https://www.brookings.edu/research/how-much-are-trumps-tariffs-costing-the-us-economy/ [2] https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-06-15/trumps-tariffs-are-hurting-california-and-the-us-economy [3] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-trade-impact-idUSKCN24K26Z [4] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/trump-tariffs-are-slowing-us-economic-growth-and-hurting-jobs-report-shows.html
- As a result of President Trump's tariffs, job growth has slowed, according to new numbers from the Labor Department, with an estimated 500,000 jobs lower by the end of 2025 due to tariff effects.
- The economic disruptions caused by the tariffs appear substantial and multifaceted, affecting not only job growth, but also consumer prices, sectoral output, and international relations.
- Although tariffs raise government revenue, they produce significant negative dynamic revenue effects, reflecting reduced economic activity and tax base.
- If these tariffs remain in place indefinitely, as modeled by recent analyses, the negative impacts on job growth and broader economic performance are likely to continue and potentially worsen, with affected states like California pursuing legal action.
