Impact Waves: Slowing Electric Vehicle Adoption in the U.S. and the Prospects of Commercial Ice Operators
In July 2025, the Trump administration announced policy reversals and trade measures aimed at slowing down the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States. These actions have had both immediate and long-term implications on EV adoption, primarily through deregulatory actions that slow EV incentives and raise barriers for cleaner vehicle mandates.
Immediate implications
The Trump EPA's 2025 proposal to rescind the Endangerment Finding and greenhouse gas (GHG) standards for vehicles removes federal emissions limits critical for enforcing EV transition goals. This directly reduces regulatory incentives for automakers to invest in EV technologies.
Such rollbacks lead to the removal of incentives and increased costs for electric vehicles, potentially slowing consumer adoption despite market trends favoring cleaner vehicles. The national charging infrastructure program has been shut down, further adding to the challenges faced by EV consumers.
Long-term implications
The sustained weakening of vehicle emissions standards risks undermining long-term automaker commitments to EV development due to less stringent federal mandates, which could impede progress toward a low-carbon transportation sector.
Dismantled environmental regulation and the withdrawal from international agreements like the Paris Agreement signaled a deprioritization of climate goals, potentially delaying infrastructure investments essential for widespread EV adoption.
Trade measures under subsequent administrations (mainly Biden) appear to realign towards supporting EVs—such as North American trade rules favoring EV parts sourcing under USMCA—indicating contrast and possible regulatory instability impacting automaker planning.
Impact on the EV transition
The reduced focus on the global EV market may make it harder for U.S. manufacturers to sell competitively priced and technologically advanced EVs abroad, reducing export opportunities. Without federal purchase incentives, the affordability gap between EVs and comparable ICE models widens.
U.S. automakers are likely to focus on selling gasoline and diesel trucks and SUVs due to federal policy against electric vehicles and increased tariffs on imported EVs. This focus on domestic ICE sales may result in U.S. manufacturers falling behind competitors in Europe, China, and other regions where EV adoption is accelerating.
In contrast, phased bans on new ICE sales, combined with dense charging networks and purchase incentives, are compressing the adoption timeline in Europe. China, with national policy strongly supporting EVs, leads the way in aligning with the electric future among automakers, suppliers, and service networks.
By prioritizing domestic ICE sales, U.S. manufacturers will cede leadership in battery technology, supply chain integration, and high-volume electric production to foreign rivals. A supportive federal stance after 2028 could reignite momentum and close the gap with other major markets.
The path from 5% to 15% BEV share of new vehicle sales in the United States will likely extend into the late 2020s, with the net effect being a slowdown in the S-curve of EV adoption in the United States. The current policy direction risks prolonging reliance on ICE vehicles and the services that support them, even as the rest of the world moves more quickly toward electric mobility.
References:
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/climate/trump-rollbacks-climate-change.html [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/trump-s-climate-rollbacks-will-cost-us-hundreds-of-billions-in-damages [3] https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/01/28/trump-rollbacks-climate-change-costs-america-hundreds-billions-damages/ [4] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-climate-policy-uncertainty-slows-electric-vehicle-adoption-2021-01-28/
- The weakening of federal policy towards electric vehicles (EVs) under the Trump administration, such as the rescission of the Endangerment Finding and emissions standards, has directly led to a reduction in regulatory incentives for automakers to invest in battery tech.
- The proposed shutdown of the national charging infrastructure program could hinder the growth of EVs, further affecting the competitive adoption of electric vehicles in the newsletter.
- In the long run, the Trump administration's policy reversals and trade measures may delay innovation in EV technology and hinder the United States from being a leader in the global electric vehicle market, as seen in emerging policy support for EVs under subsequent administrations and the accelerating EV adoption in Europe and China.
- The deregulation of EV policies could exacerbate the weather-related consequences of continued reliance on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, potentially delaying the transition towards a more sustainable transportation sector.
