Impact of Israel's Airstrikes on Iran: Achievable Outcomes Explored

No-Holds-Barred Analysis:

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Last month, I penned an article anticipating a preemptive strike against Iran's nuclear program, and boy, did things kick off! It happened just a couple of nights ago: Israel, in a move dubbed "Operation Rising Lion," waged an unprecedented assault on Iran, taking out senior military leaders, key scientists, nuclear facilities, missile production sites, you name it. The stated aim was to wipe out any potential nuclear threat. This feels like a major turning point, not just in terms of policy but also historically.

Expect plenty of chatter about this historical tipping point and the strategic implications in the coming days. But let's dive into what this op might achieve—whether intentionally or unintentionally.

First off, why the hell did Israel decide to do this now? According to military officials, they're "%100 confident" that they're "in the window of strategic opportunities." It's not just about the cost-benefit analysis of Iran's nuclear program vs. the preventive war paradox. The sheer scale and audacity of the targets suggest this is part of a broader campaign against Iranian proxies, following Hamas's attacks of October 7, 2023, rather than a mere preventive war action. The IAEA's recent finding of Iran's non-compliance with non-proliferation requirements and Tehran's response about establishing new uranium enrichment capacity certainly gave them a casus belli, but this operation has far reaching ambitions, exceeding the scope of the 1981 Israeli airstrike against an Iraqi nuclear reactor.

What stands out is the targeting of senior Iranian military leadership alongside top nuclear scientists. This is nothing new for Israel: they've been systematically decimating proxy group leadership for the past eighteen months (first Hamas, then Hezbollah, and even making threats against Houthi leaders). The pattern? Israel is eliminating its enemies, one by one, and the latest moves clearly converge on Tehran. Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu more or less said it himself, addressing Iranians: "The day of your liberation is near." An operation of this scale and such lofty objectives was probably unimaginable until now—a reflection of past analysis, mine included. But as my previous article on Operation Opera indicated, a strike against Iran's nuclear program was bound to come with hefty costs, not least political ones, so Israel is trying to milk it for all it's worth. The danger now lies in the introduction of a whole new set of costs, involving a new cast of characters and potential actions.

There's also a chance that the timing wasn't ideal: the next round of American-led negotiations to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue diplomatically was set for this weekend in Qatar. Whether this was Israel's sneaky gambit to lull the Iranians into a false sense of security or not, the sequencing matters, as it reveals an opportunity cost Israel may have considered in its cost-benefit analysis. They've still got enemies looming, and some might still seek Israel's destruction like the current regime in Tehran. But the big question here is how much diplomatic power has been compromised by this operation, as potential future diplomatic rivals may not be as easy to persuade. On the other hand, getting them to the negotiating table has value, as it reveals their intentions more clearly over time. Not all enemies are created equal, and understanding their intentions is key to assessing their threat level.

Finally, there's the security dilemma Israel faces, according to political scientist Kenneth Waltz in a 2012 Foreign Affairs article. Israel's position as the de facto regional hegemon in the Middle East (thanks to its nuclear arsenal) means it must be balanced by other nations. Operation Rising Lion may address a singular, temporal manifestation of a much bigger strategic problem. The ultimate verdict on Israel's handling of the preventive war paradox will only be known when we see who the next balancer is and how they choose to respond.

Colonel Patrick Sullivan, PhD, heads our website at West Point.

The views expressed here do not represent the official stance of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.

Picture credit: Mizan News Agency

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Main Points:

Israel's Operation Rising Lion targets Iran's nuclear program to eliminate the threat of nuclear weapons.
The operation is not just about dismantling the nuclear program—it's part of a broader campaign against Iranian proxies.
The apparent scale and audacity of the targets suggest an unprecedented military action driven by ambitious strategic objectives.
The timing of the operation raises questions about whether Israel missed an opportunity for diplomatic resolution.
The operation may compromise Israel's diplomatic power and capacity to persuade future rivals.
The regional hegemony Israel holds—the only nuclear-armed nation in the region—creates a security dilemma that must be addressed by other regional nations.
Understanding the threat level of potential future opponents hinges on understanding their intentions, which diplomatic engagement can help reveal.
Operation Rising Lion only tackles a temporary manifestation of a larger, ongoing regional security issue.
The ultimate verdict on Israel's management of the preventive war paradox will be decided by the identity and actions of the next regional balancer.

The unprecedented military operation named "Operation Rising Lion" by Israel targeted Iran's nuclear program as well as key missile production sites, senior military leaders, and nuclear scientists, signifying a broader campaign against Iranian proxies.
The scale and audacity of the targets and the elimination of Iranian military leaders and top nuclear scientists suggest that Israel is not just eliminating the potential nuclear threat, but also attempting to remove its enemies, one by one, starting with Tehran.
The timing of Operation Rising Lion is questionable as it occurred just before the scheduled American-led negotiations to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue diplomatically, which could have compromised Israel's diplomatic power and capacity to persuade potential future rivals.
The security dilemma Israel faces as a nuclear-armed nation in the Middle East implies that other regional nations may balance its power, making Operation Rising Lion only a temporary solution to a larger, ongoing security issue in the region.