Impact assessment of Israel's actions on Iran's nuclear infrastructure
*Tehran has been hit hard
Here's the scoop on Iran's nuclear sites after Israel's recent bombing spree:
What's the real damage?
Israel's attacks have left a mark on a few of Iran's nuclear facilities. The bombing struck the Natanz and Fordow underground uranium enrichment sites, as well as the Isfahan nuclear site according to the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The above-ground part of Natanz's enrichment plant has been leveled, including its power infrastructure. Although the underground cascade hall, which houses part of the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant & the main Fuel Enrichment Plant, remains intact, a power outage there might've caused some damage to the working centrifuges.
Satellite images show extensive damage to the power supply at Natanz, with backup power loss temporarily rendering the enrichment plant out of action.
At Fordow, Iran's second uranium enrichment facility, the IAEA reports no visible damage following the attacks. However, the Isfahan nuclear site took a harder hit, with four buildings sustaining damage: the central chemical lab, a uranium conversion plant, the Tehran reactor fuel manufacturing plant, and a metal processing facility under construction.
Can they stop the program entirely?
Israel might be able to set Iran's nuclear program back, but it's unlikely they can destroy it. As Vaez, International Crisis Group's Iran project director, puts it, Israel doesn't possess the unimaginably powerful weapons needed to annihilate the fortified, hidden facilities at Natanz and Fordow. Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association agrees, adding that US military assistance would be necessary to bring down these protected sites.
What about the Iranian population?
Thankfully, no increase in radiation levels has been detected at the affected facilities, as confirmed by the IAEA. However, an attack on the Bushehr plant, which was left untouched during the bombing, could have severe ramifications for both health and the environment.
Is Iran close to building a bomb?
Since the US withdrew from a landmark deal in 2018 aimed at halting Iran's nuclear activities, Iran has gradually reneged on its promises, primarily in the realm of uranium enrichment. As of mid-May, they've amassed approximately 408.6 kg of enriched uranium, only a short step away from the 90% required for a nuclear warhead.
With this near-weapons-grade material, Iran theoretically has enough for about 10 nuclear bombs, according to the definition of the Vienna-based IAEA. Notably, they are the only non-nuclear-equipped state known to produce uranium to such a high degree of enrichment.
While the IAEA has criticized Iran's disregard for its responsibilities to the UN, it has not found any evidence of an ongoing, hidden nuclear program.
Iran continues to deny any intent to develop nuclear weapons, but the strikes could fan the flames of those advocating for nuclear arms within the Iranian government.
For more updates:
Keep an eye on the Critical Threats Project (CTP) and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for ongoing updates on the strike campaign and the status of Iran's nuclear program. They're consistently releasing new analyses on the situation.
- The recent bombing spree carried out by Israel has sparked discussions in war-and-conflicts and politics sections of general news, particularly about the potential impact on Iran's nuclear program.
- Despite the damage caused by the recent bombing attacks, it remains unclear whether Iran can be stopped entirely from continuing its nuclear program, with experts suggesting that Israel does not possess the necessary firepower to annihilate fortified, hidden facilities, and possibly needing US military assistance.
