If Ukraine falters, it's our responsibility, not theirs
As the year comes to a close for Ukraine, hopes of a decisive breakthrough from their counter-offensive in 2023 have been dashed. After the successful liberation of Kharkiv and Kherson in fall 2022, optimism was high. However, the Ukrainian army finds itself on the defensive in many areas due to delays and the cruel intransigence of Vladimir Putin's invading army.
Russia, stubbornly gripped by its imperialist ideology, has aggressively ramped up its armament production while Europe hesitates. In stark contrast, the West's support has been criticized as poorly timed, insufficient, and too cautious. This apathy has contributed to pushing back the spring offensive and setting Ukraine up for failure. If Ukraine loses in this fight, it won't be because of their own shortcomings but because of our lack of commitment.
The Russian invasion, once viewed as highly unlikely, has revealed a sinister insidiousness that could have dire consequences for Europe. Sahra Wagenknecht, now a non-party member of the Bundestag, said four days before the invasion began that she had underestimated Putin's intentions. Putin's goal remains the same: domination over Europe. This is the reason that Ukrainians fight "for us too," so that Putin doesn't get away with expanding Russian terrorism.
However, the West isn't doing enough to prevent this from happening. The U.S. and Germany, Ukraine's most significant supporters, deliver aid that is too little, too late, and too cautiously. Putin counts on their reluctance to provoke supporters who oppose arms deliveries. This hesitance has left Ukraine vulnerable, and Europe less secure.
The Ukrainian military desperately needs battle tanks, fighter jets, and medium-range missiles to turn the tide in their favor. While these weapons won't immediately end the conflict, they would make a significant difference. In fact, the German government's answer to a question from CDU defense expert Roderich Kiesewetter suggests that their refusal to provide the Taurus missiles may be pretextual.
Strategies for Support
To provide Ukraine with the necessary aid and change the tide of the war, several actions and changes can be considered:
- Immediate Restoration of Non-Military Assistance: America should restore non-military aid to Ukraine, including humanitarian aid, development assistance, and direct budgetary support, helping Ukraine sustain its leverage in negotiations and supporting its energy sector.
- Enhanced Military Support: Germany should continue providing significant military aid to Ukraine and mobilize the EU to take up greater financial and material responsibilities for Ukraine's defense. NATO should boost involvement in Ukraine's training, repair, and logistics support.
- Long-term Commitment to Defense Industrial Base: Both America and Europe should invest in Ukraine's defense industrial base by helping reform its force management system, embedding senior allied officers in its general staff, and encouraging domestic defense production.
- Predictable Long-term Weapons Commitments: NATO allies should commit to providing Ukraine with predictable long-term weapons supplies to address manpower shortages and supply steady equipment.
- Economic Pressure on Russia: Increase multilateral sanctions and export controls on Russia to limit energy revenues and dual-use technology access, exacerbating Russia's vulnerabilities and capacity.
- Security Guarantees: The U.S. and its NATO partners should give Ukraine a binding pledge to come to their aid with military forces if they are attacked again.
- Addressing Manpower Shortages: Ukraine can improve mobilization and standardize its training regimen, and NATO allies should help optimize training throughput and embed senior officers in the general staff.
- Post-War Reconstruction Planning: Ukraine can use its resources for reform and post-war reconstruction, as emphasized by Chancellor Scholz, with detailed plans on how to rebuild using raw materials.
By implementing these strategies, both America and Europe can bolster their support for Ukraine, quelling criticisms and ensuring stability in this conflict.
