If current trends continue, Georgia mayfind itself resembling Belarus.
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"If Putin stays in power, he'll transform Georgia into Belarus" - claims Gennady Gudkov, former FSB officer, ex-State Duma deputy, and a Russian politician who distanced himself from the Kremlin during Putin's golden era. Living in exile now, labeled a terrorist in his home country, he spoke to RFE/RL's Georgian Service in this exclusive interview.
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Gudkov explains why he views the Georgian Dream as an ally of the Kremlin and why Putin will never tolerate democracy in Georgia's neighborhood. He believes that unity among Georgians is the only way to save the country from becoming Putin's next satellite state.
"Why would Putin attack Georgia when Georgian Dream continues to reign?" Because any nation attempting to establish democratic power is a significant threat to him. Georgia, currently in a transitional phase, is moving back towards authoritarian rule. If Putin maintains his grip on the Kremlin, he won't tolerate a world where he hasn't defeated Ukraine, NATO, and the entire democratic coalition.
What will he do? He'll try diplomatic means first, ensuring those in power in Georgia and Armenia are loyal to him. If they refuse, he'll resort to coups, armed conflicts, orchestrated unrest or war – direct invasion.
"And if Georgian Dream follows his instructions? He'll help them stay in power and build authoritarian regimes in Georgia and beyond." Under Putin's command, Georgian Dream could turn Georgia into a mirror image of Russia during the 2000s, marked by mass protests, heavy-handed police actions, bans on protests, freedom of speech, and the creation of new prisons and political prisoners. Local governments would be dismantled, civic organizations eliminated, and elections abolished - all leading to a totalitarian state.
"A paradox indeed: Georgian Dream insists that remaining in power will prevent war, while surrender will invite Russian invasion." If Georgian Dream follows Putin's orders, there might be no war. Still, Putin will persist in achieving his objectives through any means necessary. Under Putin's control, Georgia would succumb to human rights violations, totalitarian rule, and an end to democratic aspirations.
"You suggested Ivanishvili is making Georgia a continuation of Putin's Russia. What similarities do you see?" Just as Russia saw massive protests in the '00s, protests are now being cracked down on in Georgia. More laws restricting freedom of speech and assembly are on the horizon, mimicking the authoritarian crackdown in Russia.
As in Belarus, Putin has already stripped the country of its sovereignty and independence. Lukashenko now fully carries out Putin's bidding. Without resistance, Georgia may follow suit.
Interview by Vazha TavberidzeGennady GudkovGeorgia and BelarusIvanishviliPutin vs. IvanishviliThe Kremlin's influence in GeorgiaVazha Tavberidze
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Overall:
Gennady Gudkov's concerns about Georgia becoming a Belarus-like state under the Georgian Dream party stem from perceived close ties between Georgian Dream's leadership and Russian interests, as well as broader political trends towards autocratic rule. Gudkov's concerns may be rooted in past political dynamics, including the rise of authoritarianism in Russia and the suspected influence of Russian oligarchs on Georgian politics. His prediction will be validated if Georgia continues on its current trajectory towards increased Russian influence and decreased democratic freedoms.
- Despite the Georgian Dream's assertion that preserving power will prevent war, Gennady Gudkov, a former FSB officer, warns that ceding to Putin's demands could lead to a paradox, as surrendering to Russian influence might invite a Russian invasion.
- Gudkov, when discussing Ivanishvili's leadership, suggests that Georgia might become a continuation of Putin's Russia, with worrying similarities emerging, such as a crackdown on freedom of speech and assembly.
- The general news and policy-and-legislation realms have been alerted to Gudkov's concern that if Putin maintains power, he will persistently try to ensure that Georgia and other nations nestled in his neighborhood align with his authoritarian ideology.
- The underestimated paradox in the allegiance of the Georgian Dream with Putin resides in the notion that obedience to Russian demands could foster a security situation that would be detrimental to Georgia, leading to a war-and-conflicts policy that might ultimately diminish Georgia's independence, human rights, and democratic aspirations, mirroring the 2000s in Russia.
