Hypothetical contest match-up of Trump and Obama in 2028 election, according to a public survey
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In an intriguing turn of events, a poll conducted by Daily Mail/J.L. Partners has sparked discussion about a potential 2028 election match-up between former Presidents Donald Trump and Barack Obama. However, the constitutional implications of such a contest are far from straightforward.
The poll suggests that if Trump were to run against Hillary Clinton, he would win with 44 percent of the vote, compared to Clinton's 43 percent. In a hypothetical 2028 election against Obama, the results are closer, with Obama receiving 52 percent of the vote and Trump receiving 41 percent. Yet, it's important to note that both Obama and Trump have won two elections, making them ineligible to return to office according to the U.S. Constitution's Twenty-second Amendment.
The amendment states that "no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice," effectively barring former presidents like Trump and Obama from running for a third elected term in 2028. However, the question of whether they could bypass this limit through unconventional means remains a topic of debate.
Two primary methods have been proposed:
- Serving as Vice President and Succeeding to the Presidency: The Twenty-second Amendment restricts being elected president more than twice but does not explicitly bar a twice-elected president from serving as vice president. If a twice-elected president were to become vice president and then assume the presidency through succession, some argue this might allow a third term of service without violating the letter of the amendment.
- Legal Nuances in the Amendment's Language: Some scholars interpret the amendment’s language narrowly, prohibiting being "elected" more than twice, but not explicitly forbidding unelected service as president beyond two terms. By ascending to the presidency without election (by succession), a former two-term president might serve more than eight years.
Both methods are untested legally and highly speculative, and they do not allow running for a third elected term directly in 2028. Any such attempts would likely provoke significant legal challenges and require constitutional interpretation by the courts.
In the poll, 49 percent of respondents approve of Trump's job performance, while 51 percent have an unfavorable view. In contrast, Obama's approval ratings were not part of the poll. The poll's 11 percent lead for Obama over Trump is primarily due to a strong support from the Hispanic (73%) and Black (68%) voter base. In terms of independent voters, Obama received 50 percent of the vote, while Trump received 39 percent.
Trump has expressed interest in a potential election against Obama, stating that it would be "a good one" in an interview with Fox News. Despite the constitutional hurdles, the poll's results underscore the enduring political interest in these two figures, even in hypothetical scenarios.
[1] Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution [2] Donald Trump [3] Barack Obama [4] 2028 United States presidential election [5] Presidential term limits in the United States
The poll's results suggest that a hypothetical 2028 election between Donald Trump and Barack Obama would be closely contested, with Obama receiving 52 percent of the vote and Trump receiving 41 percent. However, constitutional limits bar both Trump and Obama from running for a third elected term in 2028, despite the enduring political interest in these two figures. The question of whether they could bypass this limit through unconventional means, such as serving as vice president and succeeding to the presidency, remains a topic of debate.
