Hurricane formation expected for Tropical Storm Erin, marking the first hurricane of the Atlantic season
Tropical Storm Erin Moves Northeastward Off U.S. East Coast
As of the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Storm Erin has weakened from a Category 5 peak and is currently a Category 2 hurricane. The storm, located northeast of the U.S. East Coast, is moving toward the east-northeast at about 22 mph.
Predicted Path
Erin is expected to move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda, then pass south of Atlantic Canada by Friday and Saturday. Forecast models show Erin skirting the Caribbean islands and staying well offshore of the continental U.S. East Coast as it moves northward and curves back over the Atlantic.
Potential Strength and Effects
The hurricane is forecast to gradually weaken over the next couple of days and is expected to become post-tropical by Saturday. Despite weakening, Erin remains a very large system with hurricane-force winds extending up to 105 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extending up to 320 miles.
Elevated water levels (storm surge) along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts remain a concern, though expected to recede through Friday. Dangerous surf and rip currents persist along much of the U.S. East Coast, requiring caution near beaches.
Background
Tropical Storm Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Monday and has been moving westward since. As of 5 a.m. EDT Wednesday, the center of Erin was about 1,400 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands in the West Indies. The storm's maximum sustained winds are currently 45 mph.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season started in June and runs through November. This year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an above-normal season for the Atlantic basin. Tropical Storm Erin is the fifth named storm to develop during the season.
The new activity in the Atlantic comes as parts of South Florida, including Broward County and Miami-Dade County, are starting a new school year.
Sources:
[1] National Hurricane Center. (2025, August). Tropical Storm Erin Advisory 19. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/ERIN19.shtml
[2] National Hurricane Center. (2025, August). Tropical Storm Erin Discussion 19. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/ERIND19.shtml
[3] National Weather Service. (2025, August). Coastal Flood Watches for Mid-Atlantic and New England. https://coast.noaa.gov/hms/watch/113073
[4] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2025, August). Tropical Storm Erin's Intense Peak Strength Linked to Climate Change. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/tropical-storm-erin-s-intense-peak-strength-linked-to-climate-change
[5] National Weather Service. (2025, August). High Surf Advisories for U.S. East Coast. https://www.weather.gov/safety/surf
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