Hurricane Erin's Passage Along the East Coast Predicted to Generate Giant Waves Reaching Up to 100 Feet
As the peak of hurricane season approaches, another tropical disturbance is being closely monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This system, known as Hurricane Erin, has already shown signs of rapid intensification and poses significant risks to coastal communities along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard.
According to the latest forecast, Hurricane Erin is expected to remain offshore as it moves northward up the coast, gradually weakening and becoming post-tropical by Saturday. Despite staying well offshore, it poses a threat of life-threatening coastal flooding, particularly around the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
The NHC has issued a storm surge warning for parts of the Outer Banks, indicating a danger of life-threatening coastal flooding. The hurricane's large size, with hurricane-force winds extending up to 105 miles from its center and tropical storm-force winds outward up to 320 miles, contributes to these risks.
In addition to storm surge, strong, hurricane-force winds extending far offshore contribute to rough seas. Dangerous rip currents and surf conditions are likely along much of the Atlantic coast due to Erin's strong winds and large wind field. Officials at Wrightsville Beach near Wilmington, North Carolina, rescued at least 60 swimmers from rip currents on Monday.
Hurricane-force winds from Hurricane Erin currently extend 80 miles (130 km) out from its eye. The latest forecast indicates that the largest significant wave height produced by Hurricane Erin could reach values in excess of 50 feet. While 100 feet can't be ruled out, waves near the center of 50-75 feet are considered more realistic, according to AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. A senior scientist in ocean modeling at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) stated that an associated most likely largest wave could exceed 100 feet.
Erin may bring strong winds to coastal communities in the Mid-Atlantic, southern New England, and Bermuda on Thursday and Friday. It's too soon to tell whether this system could become the second Atlantic hurricane of 2025.
The hurricane is forecast to pass south of Atlantic Canada later in the week, steered offshore by a combination of a high-pressure system and an approaching cold front, which prevents direct landfall on the U.S. coast. This track still leads to hazardous coastal conditions, including elevated water levels and rough surf capable of causing coastal erosion and dangerous swimming conditions.
In summary, the main expected impacts as Hurricane Erin moves up the Eastern Seaboard include:
- Life-threatening storm surge and coastal flooding, especially around the Outer Banks.
- Strong, hurricane-force winds extending far offshore, contributing to rough seas.
- Dangerous rip currents and surf conditions along much of the Atlantic coast.
- Gradual weakening and transition to a post-tropical system as it moves north away from the U.S. coast.
These impacts warrant caution for coastal communities and beachgoers even though a direct landfall is not expected. The Outer Banks are bracing for dangerous rip currents and storm surge up to 15 feet (4.6 meters) due to Hurricane Erin. Evacuation orders are in effect for all visitors to Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands in North Carolina, with residents' orders taking effect Tuesday morning.
[1] Source: National Hurricane Center (NHC)
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