Heading: Is Saxony's Big Election Bang Realistic? A Potential Scenario Unraveled
Just eight months prior to Saxony's 2024 state elections, the SPD, Greens, and the Left Party struggle to maintain their footing in the 5% threshold. Recent polls by the Civey Institute show that these parties are barely hanging on at 7% in Saxony's political landscape - setting alarm bells ringing for party researchers like Hendrik Träger of Leipzig University. According to Träger, the leap from 7% to the mandatory 5% is relatively straightforward, as the poll's statistical margin of error narrows the gap.
In such a bleak scenario, the 2024 elections could potentially see the CDU, AfD, and, in an extreme situation, a Wagenknecht party, as the only political forces in Saxony's parliament. This likelihood of a less diverse parliament could complicate the formation of a coalition government, making the process far more challenging.
However, the AfD and CDU share an equal standing in the polls with 33%, while the Free Voters and FDP hold 3% and 2%, respectively. The remaining political parties collectively make up 8% of the vote share.
The Expert's Warning
While the Green Party has previously missed winning a seat in Saxony's parliament, Träger cautions that the SPD could face unparalleled risks of political extinction in 2024. Its 7.7% in the 2019 elections and a national average of 15%, belies its underlying structural weakness in Saxony.
The continued unpopularity of the SPD and the Greens' partnership in the Federal Government weighs heavily on their standing in the state elections. The dual political and organizational impact would be devastating for both parties, especially the SPD.
Insights from a Political Scientist
Frank Decker, a political scientist from Bonn University, posits an alternate perspective. He sees a lower risk of the SPD and Left Party falling below the 5% threshold. Instead, he cautions against the likelihood of FDP and Green Party exclusion. He also believes that a Wagenknecht party could gain traction if it ran in both Saxony and Thuringia, and meet the required threshold.
