U.S. Tensions with the Houthis intensify as they threaten shipping in the Red Sea
The situation between the U.S. and the Houthis is heating up. Houthis claim they are targeting ships heading to Israel, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced a new U.S.-led operation on Monday. Focus on protecting ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
Following recent actions by the U.S. Navy and the announcement of new U.S. protection missions, experts from CNN questioned how warships respond to threats and what challenges they might face in the future.
The U.S. Navy has remained silent about the systems its ships use to defend against Houthi rebel attacks, but experts indicate U.S. destroyers are equipped with various weapons systems.
These include ground-to-air missiles, 5-inch main gun shells from the destroyer's main gun, and short-range weapon systems. They also have electronic warfare capabilities that could disrupt the connection between drones and their ground controllers.
Regardless of the specific systems used by destroyer captains, experts agree that they will need to make decisions on costs, inventory, and effectiveness as they expand their missions.
"Drones are slower and can be hit with less expensive rockets or even by naval guns. Faster rockets need to be intercepted with advanced interceptors," said John Bullard, Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. John Bradford added.
Threats to vital shipping lanes impact the global economy
Since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, Houthi rebels backed by Iran have launched several attacks against U.S. and Israeli interests in the region. In the region, tensions are growing over the possibility of an expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
The group claimed that every ship heading to Israel is a legitimate target, aiming to pressure Israel to halt its offensive in Gaza. They have launched several drone and missile attacks on merchant ships and even attempted to capture one by landing commando teams with a helicopter.
Following the suspension of service by the world's largest container shipping company, experts believe this will disrupt shipping lanes and drive up freight costs.
MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have all announced in recent days that they will avoid the Suez Canal due to security concerns. BP followed suit on Monday, causing oil and gas prices to soar.
"This is one of the most important shipping lanes for the world in terms of maritime trade. Time and cost for cargo transport through Africa will be enormous," said former CIA Director David Petraeus on CNN This Morning, adding that this will have a significant impact on the world economy.
The US Navy's most important asset – Guided Missile Destroyers
In response to attacks, the U.S. Navy announced it would support beleaguered merchant shipping.
The most significant U.S. forces engaged in protecting Red Sea shipping are Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers, like USS Karnak, which shot down 14 Houthi drones on Saturday. Among its missiles is:
- Standard Missile-6 (SM-6): A sophisticated weapon capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, other low-altitude missiles, and other ships out to a range of up to 370 kilometers, part of the Raketenabwehr-Programm des Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Each unit costs more than $4 million.
- Standard Missile 2 (SM-2): More advanced than the SM-6 and with a maximum range of 185 to 370 kilometers, depending on the version. Each unit costs approximately $2.5 million.
- Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM): Capable of intercepting slow threats such as anti-ship missiles and drones or helicopters with a maximum range of up to 50 kilometers, said CSIS. Each unit costs more than $1 million.
Experts believe the U.S. has used SM-2 and/or ESSM missiles to counter Houthi threats.
Expensive ammunition and cost-benefit ratio
However, experts also believe that a long-term campaign could eventually strain U.S. resources, as drones are mass-produced and can be deployed for less than $100,000 each.
"The costs of these advanced air defense capabilities are around $2 million, making the interception of drones not cost-effective," said Alessio Patalano, Professor of War and Strategy at King's College London.
Experts emphasize that the Houthis are financed and trained by Iran and have the resources to wage a protracted campaign.
Experts also question how far the U.S. wants to go in protecting merchant shipping.
Captain Carl Schuster, a former Navy captain and head of the Navy, said that the Phalanx close-in weapon system on the U.S. destroyer, a Gatling gun firing 4,500 rounds per minute, could repel incoming attacks within a mile of the ship. Used to protect US Pacific Command in Hawaii. This is relatively cost-effective defense, but if a drone gets that close, it may be the aircraft's last line of defense, and an error could cost American lives.
"A missile or drone won't sink a U.S. warship, but it can kill personnel and cause damage requiring the ship to return to port for repairs," said Bradford.
Warships defend herself rather than protecting traders
And the Phalanx system cannot protect merchants from warships hundreds of miles away that may be overseen by U.S. destroyers.
"To establish an extensive air defense, ships rely mainly on surface-to-air missiles," said Sidharth Kaushal, a warfare analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
Kaushal said the US Navy's missiles are launched from a vertical launch system (VLS) on deck.
Each unit can carry a variety of weapons (the exact number is unknown), but the supply on each ship is limited, said Kaushal. Salvatore Mercogliano, a warfare expert and professor at Campbell University in North Carolina, said if the Houthis manage to deplete a ship's ammunition supply with consecutive attacks, it may not have enough ammunition left to protect itself and the merchant ships it is escorting.
"While the Navy is well-equipped to defend against current Houthi attacks, there is concern that an increased number of escort ships will struggle to maintain the defense level required to protect merchant shipping," said he.
Experts indicate that the Houthis have not yet attempted a large-scale drone swarm attack – like the one Russia has repeatedly used in Ukraine – that involves dozens of simultaneous threats.
"Swarms could reduce the effectiveness of individual ships, but what's even more important is that weapons might pass by targeting merchant ships," said Mercogliano.
The US warships also face the challenge of replenishing their ammunition reserves in the region.
"The only place to reload missiles is Djibouti (a US base on the Horn of Africa), just miles from the action. The US is asking its allies for help," said he.
The United States appeals for international assistance
Patalano indicated that a US-led effort to increase the number of warships involved in protecting merchant shipping would help bolster defense efforts.
During a virtual meeting with representatives from 42 other countries on Tuesday, Defense Secretary Austin stated: "These reckless Houthi attacks are a serious international problem that requires decisive action from the international community."
"These attacks threaten free maritime traffic and endanger innocent seafarers. They must stop," Austin added.
The day before, Austin announced the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea, a multinational operation with the participation of the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, the Seychelles, and Spain.
"It appears that the presence of more ships able to provide mutual support has expanded the spectrum and number of capabilities available to counter challenges in the region," said Patalano.
Possible threats on the constantly evolving battlefield
Experts suggest that stronger coalition efforts will help, but larger missiles like Anti-Ship Missiles or ballistic missiles could pose new challenges.
Anti-Ship Missiles "can reach low altitudes and penetrate ship hulls above the waterline, sinking ships during the Falklands War and striking the USS Stark (in the Persian Gulf) in 1987," said Mercogliano.
A larger threat could be ballistic missiles, he added.
"Their speed and payload could cause significant damage to a warship or merchant vessel," said he, likely requiring the most advanced interceptor missiles like the SM-6 to intercept them.
Mercogliano said the battlefield was not static, and the Houthis would learn from the Navy's response.
"The Houthis observe how the Navy reacts to these attacks", said he.
Experts suggest that the U.S. may eventually decide to attack.
"There's another approach that's alarming at its core. It focuses on the elimination of these capabilities from the air rather than the interception of drones from the beginning. This would require attacking the source," said Patalano.
"It's always cheaper to kill the archer than the arrow," said Schuster.
Also Read:
In the future, US ships may face problems intercepting drones launched by the Houthi rebels in Yemen, backed by Iran, if their systems become overwhelmed by a mass deployment of drones. This is a problem that the global economy, which depends on vital shipping lanes in the Red Sea, needs to address to limit the impact of these attacks and maintain access to important ports.
Sources:
- "Houthi militia attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Seasheet"
- "U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon aircraft intercept five Iranian vessel in Gulf of Oman"
- "Sophisticated Houthi drone and missile attacks continue to threaten critical maritime infrastructure in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden"
- "U.S. Navy officer warns Yemeni conflict could potentially escalate and threaten U.S. interests"
- "The threat of sea mines to the global trading system"
Enrichment Data:
The potential challenges for U.S. naval ships countering drone attacks by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea include:
- Complexity of Attacks: The Houthi militia has launched complex, coordinated attacks involving multiple missiles and drones, making it a challenging threat to counter. Their attacks have included multiple missiles and drones, making it a complex threat to counter.
- Volume of Attacks: Over the past 15 months, the Houthis have launched over 140 attacks on commercial vessels and targeted U.S. Navy warships over 170 times with anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles and drones.
- Cost and Resource Intensity: Intercepting drones can be costly, with an SM-2 missile costing around $2 million, while drones themselves might cost between $50,000 and $200,000. The finite magazine depth of warships means they can quickly be forced back to a friendly base to reload, further exacerbating costs.
- Non-Kinetic Challenges: While the U.S. Navy destroyers have successfully used "non-kinetic" capabilities to defeat Houthi drones without firing a shot, these methods may not always be effective, and traditional kinetic methods like using deck guns or missiles may still be necessary.
- Evolution of Houthi capabilities: The Houthis have been improving their drone technology, including the use of kamikaze drone boats, which have successfully struck ships in the Red Sea. This evolution complicates the defensive strategies of US naval ships.
- Operational Dynamics: The Red Sea is a critical shipping lane, and the Houthi attacks have significantly impacted maritime trade. The dynamic nature of these attacks, including the use of surface drones and missiles, requires rapid tactical updates and effective engagement data analysis to counter effectively.
These challenges highlight the need for continuous adaptation and innovation in counter-drone strategies by the US Navy to effectively mitigate the threat posed by the Houthi militia in the Red Sea.
