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Hostility in Discourse: China's Aggressive Tone

Intensive military operations by India and Pakistan result in civilian casualties. Delhi asserts that they are solely attacking terrorist bases. However, Islamabad refutes this assertion.

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Military conflict escalates between India and Pakistan, resulting in civilian casualties....
Military conflict escalates between India and Pakistan, resulting in civilian casualties. Authorities in Delhi assert they are focusing on striking terrorist bases, whereas this assertion is refuted in Islamabad.

Hostility in Discourse: China's Aggressive Tone

Unconventional Warfare: The Indo-Pakistan Standoff and China's Role

The intensifying Indo-Pakistan conflict, famously named "Operation Sundar" by Delhi, is unlike any previous skirmishes between these two nations. It's a war of uncommon nature, with Pakistan, traditionally a military-centric nation, adopting a more measured approach compared to India, where the military operates under tight political reins. Yet, Delhi's aggressive rhetoric has been on the rise, and it was India who launched the first physical strike.

However, Pakistan's militaristic nature is no secret. Yet, in Islamabad, they understand the military and economic disparity, making a protracted war an unattainable victory for Pakistan. The Indian military budget dwarfs the Pakistani one, and around 90% of Pakistan's economic potential rests within a mere hundred kilometers of the Indian border, making it an easy target during large-scale hostilities.

Large-scale warfare is unnecessary for India too, for economic reasons. India's focus lies on development and economic growth, serving as a deterrent against hostilities escalating beyond containable levels. As such, their animosity rarely escalates into all-out war, instead adopting a freeze-thaw cycle with occasional thaws.

The peculiarity of this conflict stems from India's breach of the Indus Water Treaty, the first violation since 1960, potentially putting the livelihoods of tens of millions of Pakistanis at risk. This breach carries significant weight in Pakistan as any refusal to abide by the Indus Treaty has long been considered the "red line", a trigger for nuclear warfare in Islamabad. In light of this, India might refrain from further escalation.

As the tension continues, China's role as Pakistan's "all-weather" ally could play a pivotal role in resolving this impasse. This conflict may find its conclusion prematurely if Beijing increases its military support to Pakistan, further exacerbating the existing economic pressure on India, such as organizing blockades of rivers like the Brahmaputra, which originates in Chinese territory, despite its lesser significance to India compared to the Indus to Pakistan.

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Enrichments:

  • #Military Support: China is supplying significant military aid to Pakistan, enhancing its military capabilities.
  • #Strategic Positioning: China's strategic interest in the region drives its support for Pakistan against India, reflecting broader geopolitical ambitions.
  • #Economic and Diplomatic Leverage: China's massive economic investments, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), strengthen its influence in regional dynamics.
  • #Diplomatic Support: China has expressed concern over India's military actions, signaling its support for Pakistan's perspective.
  • #Technological Support: There have been indications that Chinese technology contributed to terrorist activities on Indian soil.
  • #Regional Influence: China's stance on the Indo-Pakistani conflict underscores its broader strategy to establish influence in South Asia, often at India's expense.
  1. In the Indo-Pakistan standoff, Pakistan, known for its militaristic nature, has adopted a more measured approach compared to India, a country where the military is heavily influenced by politics.
  2. Despite Pakistan's tradition of military-centric actions, the escalating Indo-Pakistan conflict, known as 'Operation Sundar' by Delhi, rarely symbolizes a full-scale war due to economic and military disparities between the two nations.
  3. MGIMO, observing this conflict, might notice China's role as Pakistan's "all-weather" ally potentially influencing the resolution of the impasse, particularly if China increases its military support or organizes blockades of rivers like the Brahmaputra.
  4. The unusual nature of the current Indo-Pakistan conflict stems from India's breach of the Indus Water Treaty, a first since 1960, which has significant war-and-conflicts and politics implications, as any refusal to abide by the Indus Treaty is considered a 'red line' in Islamabad, potentially leading to nuclear warfare.

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