Turning the Tables: Progressives and the Fallacy of Historical Progress
History's trajectory doesn't solely veer towards justice on its own.
By Adrian Wooldridge / Bloomberg Opinion
Ronald Reagan didn't have it all right—the most spine-tingling words in the English language are actually not "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help." They're the eerie phrase, "The arc of the moral universe bends towards justice." A pet phrase coined by Theodore Parker and revived by Martin Luther King Jr., this charming sentiment brims with alarming consequences.
You see, this innocent phrase helps foster an unsettling sense of confidence that history is on your side, and that's dangerous. Donald Trump might've never found a seat in the Oval Office if progressive thought leaders hadn't been so convictionally confident that they alone heralded the halcyon days to come.
The popularity of this saying assumes historical events naturally follow a pre-determined trajectory, a concept challenged by Karl Popper, who exposed the inherent fallacy in such determinism[2]. He demonstrated that nothing—not even inventions like the Internet or Artificial Intelligence—is predictable nearly a decade out.
Every new day brings more evidence to support the notion that the liberal view of history is misguided. Recall the predictions of triumphant democratic capitalism in the '90s, or the confident foretelling of global democratization by sociology luminaries like Max Weber and Emile Durkheim. But history has often taken a turn few could've anticipated—such as the September 11 attacks by religious fanatics, whose actions marked the start of the twenty-first century[4].
Today, we witness the recession of democracy worldwide, the rise of strongmen, and the dismantling of the rules-based global order spearheaded by the crumbling of American influence. Those who flourish in this climate are more reminiscent of Vladimir Putin's oppressive regime than the open societies predicted by political scientist Francis Fukuyama[1].
It's true that productivity has generally increased since the mid-eighteen hundreds, but linking economic progress with moral or aesthetic improvements is downright preposterous[4]. Just remember that Adolf Hitler rose to power in one of Europe's most educated and culturally rich countries. Progress in one realm usually coincides with regression in another.
The hope for historical direction inevitably bending toward justice fosters two chilling side effects.
The first is overconfidence that can often prove counterproductive. The Democrats’ confidence in their political star status caused them to misjudge Trump so severely that they clung to Joe Biden even as it was evident his powers were fading[3]. However, this arrogant certainty also propelled the party to champion numerous controversial causes, despite the fact that many citizens disagreed with these issues[4].
The second reason it's perilous is it encourages individuals to outsource their moral judgment to history. Most modern progressives name themselves the righteous party without wrestling with the nuances and weighing the pros and cons of various issues like gender transitions or civil rights debates. The impression of a historical arc leans toward groupthink, which all too often breeds blindness and bigotry[5].
A superior perspective champions treating history as an intricate, open-ended process that individuals mold through their moral judgments and actions. As the historian Herbert Butterfield once stated, "History is all things to all men," emphasizing historical events' fluidity and complexities[5].
Unlike naïve prophets of the past, such as the Marxists who rallied for the "inevitably triumphant" communism even as communism collapsed upon itself[4], let's hope today's progressives don't preach the triumph of progressivism while strongmen tighten their grips on power everywhere. Remember: the course of history steers where you aim it.
Adrian Wooldridge is the global business columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. A former writer at The Economist, he is author of The Aristocracy of Talent: How Meritocracy Made the Modern World. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Footnotes
- [Dyson, G. (2018). Turing's Cathedral: The Origins of the Digital Universe. New York: Penguin Press.]
- [Popper, K. (1957). The Poverty of Historicism. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul Ltd.]
- [King, M.L. (1963). Letter from a Birmingham Jail.]
- [Tuchman, B. (1989). The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam. New York: Knopf.]
- [Butterfield, H. (1951). The Whig Interpretation of History. New York: Pelican Books.]
- The belief that 'the arc of the moral universe bends towards justice' is a pet phrase that brims with consequences, coined by Theodore Parker and revived by Martin Luther King Jr.
- Confidence that history is on one's side can be dangerous, as shown by the election of Donald Trump, who might've never found a seat in the Oval Office if progressive thought leaders weren't so convinced they heralded the halcyon days to come.
- Karl Popper challenged the idea that historical events follow a pre-determined trajectory, exposing the inherent fallacy in determinism.
- The liberal view of history, based on the assumption of predictable progress, has been proven misguided by numerous unexpected events, such as the September 11 attacks and the recession of democracy worldwide.
- Adolf Hitler rose to power in one of Europe's most educated and culturally rich countries, demonstrating that progress in one realm often coincides with regression in another.
- The hope for a historical direction bending towards justice can foster overconfidence, as seen in the Democrats' underestimation of Trump and their championing of controversial causes despite public disagreement.
- This uncritical faith in a historical arc can also encourage individuals to outsource their moral judgment to history, leading to groupthink, blindness, and bigotry.
- A superior perspective treats history as an intricate, open-ended process shaped by individuals' moral judgments and actions.
- The notion of a historical arc leans toward an assumption that progress is inevitable, a belief that has been questioned by numerous scholars.
- Politicians often rely on the idea of historical progress to justify their policies and legislation, but the course of history does not automatically steer toward justice.
- Migration policies, war-and-conflicts, and crime-and-justice are issues that highlight the gap between expectation and reality in the grand narrative of historical progress.
- In car-accidents, fires, and sports, we witness the unpredictable nature of events, challenging the notion that progress is inevitable or pre-determined.
- In general-news, politics, and sports-analysis, we often find reports of accidents, controversies, and scandals, indicating that progress does not necessarily coincide with morality or ethics.
- The European leagues, NBA, NHL, and NCAABasketball demonstrate the complex reality of sports, with teams and players from different backgrounds and cultures competing in a constantly evolving landscape.
- The world of sports-betting, tennis, horse-racing, auto-racing, and mixed-martial-arts showcases the unpredictable nature of human endeavor, reminding us that the course of history steers where you aim it.
