Historical Precedents in India's Response: Kashmir Attack and Potential Actions against Pakistan
It looks like trouble is brewing between Pakistan and India once more. On Wednesday, Pakistan claimed they had "credible intelligence" that India might launch a military strike within the next few days, in response to the April 22 attack on tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir, where 26 people lost their lives.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been leading several security meetings, fueling speculation about an impending Indian military operation against Pakistan. Relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors have been strained for some time, with both sides scaling back diplomatic engagement and effectively expelling each other's citizens.
Let's take a closer look at what history can tell us about the potential military response from India, and what that might entail.
What happened?
Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar stated that Islamabad had "credible intelligence" that India was preparing to take military action within the "next 24 to 36 hours." The action, according to Tarar, would be retaliation on baseless and concocted allegations of Pakistan's involvement in the Pahalgam attack, although India has accused Pakistan of involvement in the incident, which Pakistan denies.
India and Pakistan each administer parts of Kashmir, but both countries claim the territory in full. Tarar's statement followed a closed-door meeting between Modi and Indian security leaders, during which Modi reportedly granted the Indian military "complete operational freedom" to respond to the Pahalgam attack.
World leaders have stepped up diplomacy efforts to cool the situation, with both India and Pakistan exchanging gunfire along the Line of Control (LoC) that divides Indian and Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
What military action could India take?
While it is uncertain what specific course of action India might take, it has a history of utilizing various military tactics. Here are some options:
Covert military operations
These aren't officially announced or confirmed but have been carried out multiple times by both India and Pakistan, targeting military posts, killing soldiers, and occasionally beheading enemy troops. These strikes often serve as a form of retribution in response to previous attacks on India's military.
Publicised surgical strikes
At other times, India has chosen to make an attack public, aiming to embarrass the other country and gain political benefit. Such attacks, like the surgical strikes India carried out in 2016 after a terrorist attack on Indian soldiers in Uri, Kashmir, are focused on specific targets and tend to result in low casualty rates.
Aerial strikes
In 2019, India launched an aerial raid into Pakistan-administered Kashmir after a suicide bomber killed 40 Indian paramilitary soldiers in Pulwama, Kashmir. Although the impact of the raid was unclear, it served as a demonstration of India's military capabilities and resolve.
Attempts at taking over Pakistan-controlled land
While retaking Pakistan-administered Kashmir is a long-standing policy objective of the Indian government, the closely matched military capabilities of both sides make such an endeavor unlikely.
Naval missions
In response to the Pahalgam attack, the Indian Navy recently conducted test missile strikes, showcasing its ability to strike Pakistani territory if necessary.
A full-blown military conflict
India and Pakistan have gone to war four times in their history, with three conflicts centered around Kashmir. The most recent conflict, the Kargil War in 1999, resulted from Pakistani military crossings of the LoC, which India eventually pushed back.
In such volatile situations, it's essential for both sides to resist escalating tensions and seek diplomatic resolution. Stay informed and stay safe as this story develops.
- The brewing trouble between Pakistan and India generates breaking news, with Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar claiming they have "credible intelligence" of an impending Indian military operation within the next 24 to 36 hours.
- Relations between the two countries have been tense, with diplomacy efforts stepping up to cool the situation as both sides exchange gunfire along the Line of Control (LoC).
- World leaders are closely monitoring the war-and-conflicts scenario, aware that history shows a history of military response from India, such as covert military operations, publicised surgical strikes, aerial strikes, attempts at taking over Pakistan-controlled land, naval missions, or a full-blown military conflict.
- Due to the nuclear-armed neighbors' military readiness, it's crucial for each side to exercise restraint and engage in politics to find a diplomatic resolution, considering the potential beheading and bloodshed that can arise from any war.
- General news about the conflict surrounds the political implications surrounding the April 22 attack on tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir, and whether India will scale back its diplomatic engagement with Pakistan similar to previous instances.
- The likelihood of war or any major confrontation between India and Pakistan is uncertain, but as the story unfolds, it's important for the global community to remain prepared and informed, with an eye towards maintaining peace during this tense period.
