Historic Lead Surrendered by Atlanta Braves in Ninth Inning, Raising Questions on Their World Series Prospects
The Atlanta Braves' turbulent 2025 season isn't shaping up as expected.
Their dismal start saw them lose all seven games against the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers. The extended absence of superstar outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr., who returned after a month and a half, compounded their woes. Even with Acuña back, the Braves managed just three wins in their next 11 games.
Determined to snap a three-game losing streak, they faced the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Braves offense shone in the early stages, with Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, and Ozzie Albies driving in six runs, and home runs from Acuña, Austin Riley, and Drake Baldwin further extending the lead to 9-3.
However, the game took a dramatic turn in the ninth inning. The Diamondbacks, with their win expectancy at a meager 0.1%, mounted an unprecedented comeback. Lourdes Gurriel homered to make it 10-5, and then Tim Tawa walked. Alek Thomas homered, followed by Jose Herrera walking and Corbin Carroll doubling. Ketel Marte hit an infield single, reducing the deficit to 10-8, with just one out remaining.
Geraldo Perdomo popped up, leaving the Braves just one out away from securing a tense victory. But Illedmaro Vargas singled, narrowing the gap to 10-9, and suddenly the Diamondbacks' win expectancy skyrocketed to 14%. The final blow came from Eugenio Suarez, who doubled to secure an unthinkable 11-10 victory for the Diamondbacks.
The Greatest Collapse: Braves vs Diamondbacks
The magnitude of this collapse is almost unparalleled in MLB history. As David O'Brien noted, the Braves had won 766 consecutive games when leading by at least six runs after eight innings[1][2]. They hadn't lost a game with such a significant lead in the ninth inning in 52 years.
For the Diamondbacks, this victory marked a first in their history. They'd never before won a game when trailing by that many runs entering the eighth inning, let alone the ninth. The Braves, despite their poor record, inadvertently etched their names in the Diamondbacks' historical annals[2].
Instead of snapping their losing streak and regaining momentum, the Braves dropped to 3-9 in their last 12 games, trailing the first-place New York Mets by 11 games and the third wild card spot by seven games[4]. With such a large deficit, the question arises: is this the twilight of the Braves' dynasty?
The Braves, champions of the 2021 World Series and subsequent 100+ win seasons in 2022 and 2023, have seen a sharp decline in 2025. Their record stands at 27-34, a stark contrast to their winning ways. Despite the poor record, they boast a positive run differential, and their expected record, based on their performances, is 31-30[4]. Acuña, Jurickson Profar returning from his suspension, Reynaldo Lopez, and Drake Baldwin offer hope for the future.
However, there are concerns. The rotation outside of Chris Sale is struggling, and Raisel Iglesias' ERA stands at 5.79. Michael Harris has been underperforming, while Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley, who had been stars in previous years, are currently below par. The inconsistencies extend to star pitcher Spencer Strider, who has struggled after returning from injuries[4].
The Braves face a critical decision: to buy or sell at the deadline. Marcell Ozuna, a free agent after the season, could fetch useful prospects. Chris Sale, with his club option for 2026, could also be an attractive trade prospect, if needed[4].
The window for dominating the NL East may have closed, and the window for postseason baseball might be narrowing rapidly. Nevertheless, there's still a core group of players under team control for the next few seasons, offering a glimmer of hope.
References
- Braves bounce back after tough loss to Arizona
- Braves collapse in ninth in losing streak-extending loss to Diamondbacks
- Atlanta Braves: Win Expectancy from June 5 vs Arizona Diamondbacks
- Braves fall to Diamondbacks in tough fashion
Despite their determination to end their three-game losing streak, the Atlanta Braves suffered another heartbreaking defeat against the Arizona Diamondbacks, marking the team's fourth loss in the MLB in a game where they led by at least six runs after eight innings. This unfortunate event, among the most monumental comebacks in MLB history, has raised questions about the future of the Braves' dynasty and their chances of postseason baseball.
