"His fate is sealed" or "He's in big trouble now" or "It's the end of the line for him"
In the wake of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko expresses apprehension about the upcoming Zapad-2025 joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises, scheduled for September 12-16, 2025. These drills, involving around 13,000 personnel, are set to include air defense exercises, defensive combat scenarios, and practice in repelling incursions, including training related to nuclear-capable missile systems to be deployed in Belarus [1][3][5].
Lukashenko's nervousness appears to stem from the potential risks these exercises pose to Belarus's stability and regional security. His concerns reflect apprehension about the exercises escalating tensions or drawing Belarus deeper into conflict dynamics not entirely under his control [4].
Ukraine plays a central role in Lukashenko's concerns. The drills follow Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and could potentially serve as a prelude to another attack from Belarusian territory, as warned by senior Ukrainian officials and President Zelensky. The presence and movement of substantial Russian military forces near Ukraine's border via Belarus during Zapad-2025 is seen as a direct threat to Ukraine's security and sovereignty [3].
Notably, Lukashenko has reportedly created an entire special forces division on the border with Ukraine, suggesting a potential increased military presence in the region [2]. A Ukrainian infantry, with combat experience, is said to be ready to counter any attack from Lukashenko's special forces [6].
Kyrylo Sazonov, a Ukrainian soldier and political scientist, suggests that Lukashenko might be worried about a similar scenario to the one that unfolded in 2022, when Russian forces entered Ukraine and moved towards Kyiv following military exercises [7]. Sazonov emphasizes that Ukraine is aware of any potential attack from Belarus due to past events [8].
In a meeting with Putin, Lukashenko mentioned the creation of this special forces division, implying a potential strategic move to assert Belarus's position amidst the geopolitical tension [2]. However, analysts and Ukrainian officials express concern that Russia could use these exercises to apply pressure near NATO's eastern flank or as cover for escalation, including possibly preparing for further military actions against Ukraine from Belarusian soil [1][3][5].
Despite these concerns, Ukraine currently maintains control of the situation regarding potential threats from Belarus [4]. The Ukrainian military's readiness and experience, coupled with heightened awareness of any potential attacks, position them in a position of military strength relative to Belarus [6][8].
References: 1. The Guardian 2. CNN 3. BBC News 4. Reuters 5. The New York Times 6. Charter97.org 7. Associated Press 8. The Washington Post
- Lukashenko's apprehension about the Zapad-2025 military exercises, given the potential risks to Belarus's stability and regional security, seems to be driven by concerns about escalating tensions or Belarus getting drawn deeper into war-and-conflicts, particularly considering Russia's past invasions of Ukraine.
- The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the possibility of a prelude to another attack from Belarusian territory, as warned by senior Ukrainian officials, are contributing factors to the politics and general-news narrative surrounding the upcoming Zapad-2025 joint Russian-Belarusian exercises.
