Hezbollah's failure to disarm could potentially escalate the damage inflicted by Israel
The Lebanese government has announced a plan to disarm Hezbollah and other armed groups, aiming to complete the process by the end of 2025. This decision comes after a phased approach that includes the Lebanese army taking control from Israeli checkpoints in the south, Hezbollah withdrawing from areas south of the Litani River, and the dismantling of Hezbollah's heavy weapons and military infrastructure.
However, Hezbollah has resisted this disarmament, with the militant group publicly stating it would rather "die" than give up its weapons. Hezbollah argues that the Lebanese Armed Forces are incapable of defending Lebanon against Israeli threats, making its arsenal essential. Iran, a key supporter of Hezbollah, also opposes disarmament, complicating the Lebanese government's efforts.
The future of disarmament is uncertain and fraught with challenges. Disarmament could potentially challenge Hezbollah’s identity and political leverage, causing internal fractures or splinter groups within the militia. Successful disarmament might involve a negotiated process where Hezbollah fighters are gradually integrated into the LAF or reintegrated into civilian life with international mediation and incentives from countries like the U.S., France, and Gulf states.
Israel's stance on the matter is conditionally supportive of Lebanese army control, but the continued resistance from Hezbollah could potentially lead to renewed military conflict. Israel seeks to weaken Hezbollah's military threat permanently and maintain security along its northern border. If Hezbollah does not disarm, Israel might reject any ceasefire or withdrawal commitments and could intensify military operations to neutralize Hezbollah’s arsenal and influence.
Last week, the Lebanese government endorsed the objectives of a US-drafted plan. The potential outcomes of Israel's strategies are deeply alarming, with Israel considering permanent annexation of Lebanese land if demands are not met. Israel has previously targeted Hezbollah sites and party officials, and could potentially destroy Hezbollah infrastructure south of the Litani River and make demands for withdrawal, including disarmament of Hezbollah or a peace treaty with Israel.
Hezbollah finds itself in a position of isolation in Lebanon, blamed by many for carrying the country into an unnecessary and destructive war over Gaza. The Shiite parties, particularly Hezbollah, are conscious of their vulnerabilities and appear to have no credible plan B. Hezbollah is currently under direct Iranian control, which raises questions about its ability to navigate the complex political landscape of Lebanon independently.
As the situation remains delicate with potential for conflict escalation contingent on Hezbollah’s compliance and international diplomacy, it is crucial that all parties involved approach this matter with caution and a commitment to peace.
[1] Lebanon to Disarm Hezbollah by End of 2025 [2] Hezbollah Resists Disarmament, Backed by Iran [3] Future of Disarmament Uncertain and Contentious [4] Israel's Potential Responses if Hezbollah Resists Disarmament [5] The Lebanese Government Endorses US-Drafted Plan for Hezbollah's Disarmament [6] Israel Expansion Potential in Lebanon [7] Hezbollah Defends Untenable Status Quo [8] Israel's Non-Withdrawal from Lebanon [9] Israel's Campaign Against Hezbollah in Syria [10] Challenges Hezbollah May Face in Reviving Resistance Dimension [11] Shiite Parties Conscious of Vulnerabilities [12] Hezbollah Under Direct Iranian Control, No Credible Plan B [13] Hezbollah and Its Ally, the Amal Movement, Negatively Respond to Government's Decision [14] Potential Israel Annexation of Lebanese Land [15] Alarming Potential Outcomes of Israel's Strategies
- The Lebanese government has announced a plan to disarm Hezbollah and other armed groups in Lebanon by the end of 2025, but Hezbollah has resisted this disarmament, receiving support from Iran.
- The future of Hezbollah's disarmament is uncertain and contentious, with Israel expressing potential alarming outcomes if Hezbollah does not comply.
- Israel has expressed support for the Lebanese army taking control from Israeli checkpoints in the south, but Israel's stance on the matter is conditionally supportive of disarmament, and the continued resistance from Hezbollah could lead to renewed military conflict.
- As the situation remains delicate with potential for conflict escalation contingent on Hezbollah’s compliance and international diplomacy, it is crucial that all parties involved approach this matter with caution and a commitment to peace.
