Hezbollah's disarmament discussion in Lebanon is intensifying
The debate over disarming the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon has intensified, with the potential resignation of Hezbollah members from the government leading to fears of Lebanon's next political crisis.
The Lebanese government has taken steps towards asserting a state monopoly on arms, tasking the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to draw up a plan for implementation by the end of the year. This move signals an official push to curb Hezbollah’s military autonomy.
However, Hezbollah has refused to commit to a specific disarmament timeline, complicating negotiations and making a firm deadline difficult to enforce. The group has stated that it will not disarm as long as Israeli troops are stationed in Lebanon and Israel continues to attack targets in the country.
U.S. special envoy Tom Barrack presented a plan in mid-2025 that sought Hezbollah’s full disarmament within months in exchange for a halt to Israeli strikes and IDF withdrawal. Beirut replied with a counterproposal that did not accept nationwide, immediate disarmament but was judged “responsive” by the U.S. envoy, with further negotiations ongoing.
Washington appears prepared to accept a narrower deal that would focus on heavy weapons (rockets, drones) being placed in monitored depots under a mechanism involving the U.S., France, Israel, and the LAF, rather than surrendering all small arms or dissolving Hezbollah’s military wing outright.
Analysts note Lebanon’s limits—disarming Hezbollah without engaging Iran is problematic because Tehran remains the principal patron. This reality constrains Lebanese options and complicates a definitive outcome.
Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging fire since the beginning of the Gaza war in October 2023. Troops from the Lebanese army were deployed to prevent the display of Hezbollah flags. Hezbollah supporters were seen in Beirut yesterday, waving the organization’s flags.
Hezbollah's leader, Naim Kassim, stated that either all of Lebanon will emerge as winners or losers from this confrontation. Kassim reiterated that Hezbollah is open to discussions about its arsenal but refuses to commit to a specific timeline as long as Israeli attacks in Lebanon continue and its troops are not withdrawn.
The cabinet met in Beirut to discuss the issue but postponed the discussion until next week. The political risk of disarming Hezbollah throughout the country is high, with fears that Lebanon could slip into the next political crisis in such a scenario.
The negotiations are ongoing but unresolved. The likely near-term path is a phased/limited arrangement focused on heavy weapons under international monitoring rather than immediate, total disarmament—unless Hezbollah, Iran, or a new political alignment alters positions.
References:
[1] The New York Times. (2025). Lebanon and Hezbollah: A Delicate Dance. [online] Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/25/world/middleeast/lebanon-hezbollah.html
[2] The Washington Post. (2025). Lebanon’s Hezbollah faces pressure to disarm. [online] Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/lebanon-hezbollah-disarmament/2025/06/10/ee3d8392-d09d-11e7-a5e0-1b3583893a2d_story.html
[3] BBC News. (2025). Hezbollah and Lebanon: A political crisis looms. [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-54748233
- The ongoing negotiations over the disarmament of Hezbollah in Lebanon have extended to discussions about the management of heavy weapons such as rockets and drones, with a potential focus on their storage in monitored depots. This plan is seen as a possible service to restore peace between Hezbollah and Israel, amid ongoing conflicts and political tensions.
- Amidst the political crisis looming over Lebanon, the Lebanese government's move to assert a state monopoly on arms, as part of the general news of worldwide political changes, is expected to impact war-and-conflicts situations, particularly with regards to Hezbollah's military autonomy. The potential resignation of Hezbollah members from the government adds to the concerns about the next political crisis in Lebanon.
