Hesse's Coalition Agreement Almost Set: CDU and SPD Gaining Momentum
Minister President Boris Rhein (CDU) shared optimistic news during a recent update, reporting that negotiations between the CDU and SPD for Hesse's coalition are progressing smoothly. Both parties are refining the details and planning to cast their votes on the agreement at their respective conferences on December 16. If all goes according to plan, the assigning of the coalition agreement is expected to occur on December 18.
Hesse has been under the control of a black-green government for a decade now. The CDU emerged as the triumphant party in the October 8th state election, granting them the liberty to choose either the Greens or SPD as their coalition partners. Following alternating exploratory talks, the CDU opted to collaborate with the SPD instead, setting the stage for a black-red government. The Hessian state parliament will be inaugurated on January 18.
Rhein described the encounters with the SPD as "constructive and remarkably amicable" when discussing the negotiations' overall atmosphere. The broader process, which involved around 200 participants in more than a dozen working groups, displayed significant success, he said. Instead of confining a select few to the negotiations, the CDU relied on a diverse range of suggestions, including input from mayors and district councillors.
Leading Migration as the Primary Focus
When queried about the contents of the prospective coalition agreement, Rhein pointed towards the key points paper written by the CDU and SPD after exploratory talks. The agreement includes promises to cap migration, increase police positions, and supply aid for first-time homeowners. In addition, a separate ministry for agriculture and forestry, as well as viticulture, hunting, and homeland, will be established.
Insightful Additions:
The following insights can be inferrred from the context, although there are no specific sources available:
- Common Ground: The CDU and SPD are focusing on identifying common ground in various policy areas, such as revisiting the debt brake and other economic policies.
- Strategic Shift: Boris Rhein's strategic approach during the 2023 regional elections involved positioning himself in the vicinity of both the SPD and the Greens. He ultimately opted to work with the SPD as they exhibited a willingness to negotiate and compromise.
- Coalition Challenges: The successful formation of the coalition and subsequent agreement hinges on the parties' ability to find a middle ground, given the shift to the right of German conservatives under Friedrich Merz. This may complicate the negotiations.
Complementary Context:
In the context of the German federal election, rather than a specific coalition agreement in Hesse, the following elements underlie the policy landscape and potential coalition challenges:
Migration Policy
- Migration Anxiety: Immigration has become a major concern for German voters, with 68% expressing a desire for fewer immigrants and refugees. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has seized this discontent, advocating for "remigrating" individuals with a migrant background, even those holding German citizenship[2].
- CDU's Immigration Bill: The CDU/CSU proposed a bill aimed at improving the management of illegal immigration. However, it was vetoed by the SPD and Greens due to the AfD's support for the bill. Chancellor Olaf Scholz opposed the bill, viewing it as unacceptable to unite with the AfD, maintaining a "firewall" between mainstream politics and the far-right[2].
- CDU Leader's Stance: CDU leader Friedrich Merz pushed for his party members to support the immigration bill, but he was criticized by SPD members, including Scholz, as a Nazi sympathizer. This split within the party highlights the political polarization surrounding migration policies[2].
Fiscal Policies
- Debt Brake: The German "debt brake," which restricts the budget deficit to less than 0.35% of the annual GDP, continues to be a point of contention. Finance Minister Christian Lindner's refusal to soften the debt brake to close the deficit gap of 10 billion euros led to the dissolution of the ruling coalition. The SPD promotes the reform of German debt rules to enable additional investment in infrastructure and proposes a "Made in Germany" bonus to incentivize private investment[1].
- Economic Downturn: Germany has experienced two consecutive years of economic contraction, with a 0.1% decline in 2023 and an anticipated 0.2% decline in 2024. The country's economic concerns include weak productivity and high export dependence, continuing to affect its post-Covid recovery[1].
Potential Coalition Challenges
- CDU's Dilemma: If the CDU captures a majority in the election, they face two primary dilemmas. First, they aim to avoid repeating the instability of a three-party coalition that Germans seem determined to reject. Second, forming a coalition with the likely second-placed party, the AfD, would erode the long-standing "firewall" between mainstream politics and the far-right, which the CDU has committed not to breach[1].
- AfD's Influence: The AfD's support for the CDU's immigration bill and its continued rise within German politics represent significant challenges for any potential coalition. The AfD's controversial policies and rhetoric have cemented its position in the election, with 26% of the population preferring a coalition with the AfD[2].
These elements paint a complex policy panorama and potential coalition challenges in the context of the upcoming German federal election.
