Heavy rainfall deficit in August 1-15 recorded at 20% nationwide, while Central India experiences a significant shortfall of 59% compared to average rainfalls during the same period.
India has been experiencing a mixed monsoon season, with some regions facing deficit rainfall and drought-like conditions, while others have recorded heavy localized rain. The first fortnight of August 2025 saw deficient rainfall across the country, primarily due to an uneven distribution of the monsoon, low pressure systems, and western disturbances not compensating sufficiently for dry patches.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), about 24% of districts recorded deficient rainfall, with 7% experiencing large deficits. Central, west, and parts of north India were particularly affected. However, the overall rainfall season since June 1 has been slightly above average, with India receiving approximately 3% excess rainfall on average by early August.
The IMD expects improved rainfall activity in the latter half of August and September, which is crucial for crop yields and reservoir levels. As of August 8, the overall Kharif sowing is 4% higher than the previous year.
Notably, the North-West region is the only region that reported more rainfall than its Long Period Average (LPA) during June 1-August 15. The East and North-East region, on the other hand, received 8.1% above normal rainfall during the first fortnight of this month.
However, the East and North-East meteorological region has recorded a deficit of 16.6% compared to its LPA between June 1 and August 15. Similarly, the Central India subdivision, comprising Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat, has reported a deficit of 59.2% at 66.6 mm.
The Southern region, on the contrary, reported a surplus of 25.6% with 124.1 mm of rainfall during the same period. Unfortunately, data for several regions, including the north and northwest districts of Delhi, two districts of Mizoram, and five districts of Nagaland, are not available.
Despite these challenges, the government has set a target of 168.88 million tonnes of foodgrain production during Kharif 2025 and is banking on an overall increase in cropped area and good rainfall for a bumper output.
In some regions, heavy rains and floods have caused crop damages, with Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand seeking Central assistance for the farmers. Despite a dip in area, India's cotton output may rise due to higher yields.
In summary, while the monsoon season has been erratic, with significant regional disparities, the seasonal outlook remains positive for the second half of the monsoon, with rainfall expected close to or above normal, which is vital for agriculture and water storage.
- To mitigate the impact of deficient rainfall, India's agricultural sector could potentially benefit from enhanced banking infrastructure, facilitating access to essential resources and credit for farmers.
- For a comprehensive understanding of the monsoon's impact on the overall economy, it is essential to consider factors such as infrastructure development, business growth, and the potential effects on environmental-science sectors like weather and climate modelling.
- The improvement in agricultural productivity, assuming the anticipated rainfall increase during the second half of August and September, could contribute to an uptick in IT services, given the sector's reliance on the agricultural output for labor and raw materials.
- In addition to the immediate agricultural impact, a potential surplus in foodgrain production could stimulate the economy by increasing the availability of resources for export-oriented businesses and subscription-based services.
- The uneven distribution of rainfall raises concerns about famine-prone regions and the environmental consequences, underscoring the importance of investing in agriculture, infrastructure, and environmental-science research to ensure sustainable development and resilience against future weather uncertainties.
