Has the nuclear disarmament system been weakened or faltering?

The Global Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime Faces a Tough Test in Today's Geopolitical Landscape

Has the nuclear disarmament system been weakened or faltering?

After eight decades of nuclear restraint, the world order is witnessing a test of the global nonproliferation regime's resilience amid rapid geopolitical shifts. A reevaluation of the regime's longevity is required as we navigate through shifting alliances and political changes.

Back in the 1960s, when then-president John F. Kennedy estimated that around 25 countries would have nuclear weapons by the 1970s, only nine possess them today. This successful containment of proliferation is due to the efforts of governments, agreements, and institutions that have worked together to discourage the spread of nuclear weapons.

The landmark Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), negotiated in 1968, was instrumental in limiting proliferation, with countries agreeing to forgo the development of nuclear weapons in exchange for the support and technical assistance of the established nuclear powers. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been crucial in verifying peaceful nuclear energy programs and ensuring compliance with agreements.

However, the current geopolitical landscape is presenting new obstacles. One of the most high-profile challenges is Iran's uranium enrichment activities, which now exceed the levels needed for civilian purposes. IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi has expressed concerns, suggesting Iran could develop a nuclear weapon in a matter of months rather than years. Saudi Arabia has indicated it would consider withdrawing from the NPT if Iran arms itself with nuclear weapons, potentially igniting a regional arms race.

Meanwhile, the United States' approach to alliances is under transformative scrutiny, fueling anxiety among allies about the commitment to extended nuclear deterrence. The weakening of this deterrence could lead countries to question whether they should acquire nuclear weapons for their own self-defense, particularly in light of historical examples like Ukraine, which gave up its nuclear arsenal under the Budapest Memorandum but was later invaded by Russia.

Proponents of nuclear proliferation argue that it could have desirable effects on regional power structures, similar to the stabilizing impact nuclear weapons had on US-Soviet relations. However, these conditions are far from ideal in many parts of the world, escalating the risk of nuclear insecurity for countries that acquire nuclear capabilities.

Nonstate actors, such as terrorist organizations, also pose a significant threat. Even though the likelihood of a terrorist group acquiring a nuclear device is low, the potential consequences are catastrophic, creating severe challenges and uncertainties for global security.

The global nonproliferation regime's future is far from guaranteed. As political and technological trends continue to evolve, the focus must be on preserving and strengthening the regime, particularly with respect to US alliances and nuclear deterrence guarantees. To do so, it's essential to recognize that an unequal distribution of weapons is acceptable to most states because the alternative—anarchy—is more dangerous. As long as countries are demonstrably better off without a nuclear weapon than with one, the policy of slowing nuclear proliferation can stand on a solid foundation.

It's crucial to acknowledge that the global nonproliferation regime's erosion could have numerous negative consequences, including an increase in nuclear insecurity and the derailment of efforts to establish a just and peaceful world order. Strengthened international cooperation and commitment to existing arms control agreements are necessary to mitigate these risks and secure a more stable and secure future for the global community.

This article was originally written by Joseph S. Nye, Jr., a former dean of Harvard Kennedy School, who is also a former US assistant secretary of defense and the author of the memoir A Life in the American Century.

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