Harmful Georgian Dream Policies Threaten Tbilisi's National Security, Say Experts
In the mid-2010s, Major General Vakhtang Kapanadze found himself leading Georgia's military forces during a crucial period. The annual joint military exercise with the United States, Noble Partner, was underway. Fast forward, and Noble Partner appears to have reached its end - a move that some military analysts and Kapanadze himself see as a troubling sign for Georgia's security.
The announced indefinite postponement of Noble Partner is part of a larger shift in relations between the United States and Georgia, according to officials. This sea change in an established security arrangement, experts say, highlights Georgia's shifting geopolitical stance away from the West, potentially creating a security vacuum and weakening the nation's ability to counter Russian aggression.
Just days after the announcement about Noble Partner, funding for Georgia's armed forces from the European Union was put on hold. Similar announcements came from Denmark about a military aid program. The question now looms over Georgia's defense establishment: Are they prepared to face potential threats without Western military partners?
Kapanadze expresses concerns about the military's readiness to defend Georgia against Russia without Western backing. "It's a disaster for us if we're left to face Russia alone," he told Eurasianet.
Ambassador Pawel Herczynski, representing the EU in Tbilisi, explained the aid cutoff as a reshuffling of priorities in Europe. Instead of direct support to the government, the EU aims to divert funds to strengthening democratic institutions and supporting civil society and independent media.
If the assistance programs were to be reinstated, it would require a change in Georgia's current course. This trajectory has seen the country adopt illiberal policy positions that clash with traditional Western values. The potential change in leadership, should the Georgian Dream government lose power in parliamentary elections, could also impact the US and EU's stance on military cooperation.
The rift between the West and Georgia can be traced back to the adoption of a controversial law - reminiscent of one used in Russia to stifle dissent - regulating foreign agents. Additional discrimination and unfounded allegations of a US-led coup conspiracy have further strained relations.
Pentagon Spokesperson Pat Ryder confirmed that the cancelation of Noble Partner was a direct response to unsubstantiated claims made by the Georgian government last fall about a US-led attempt to incite a coup. "Regrettably, the decision to postpone and cancel these exercises was made due to baseless claims that the United States intentionally seeks to escalate tensions in the region, which is false," he said in an interview with Voice of America.
Georgia's military is primarily focused on countering potential threats from Russia, which continues to control swaths of Georgian territory following the 2008 Georgian-Russian War, including the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
While defense spending has reached record highs in recent years, former ambassador Vasil Sikharulidze noted that the budget does not adequately address the threats facing the Georgian defense sector. "It's not completely neglected, but they don't invest in developing new capabilities," he told Eurasianet.
The 2008 war with Russia highlighted the importance of NATO support. In 2020, 45 lawmakers requested a permanent US military presence to deter threats and facilitate Georgia’s path towards NATO membership. Despite the current strained relationship, NATO continues to engage with Georgia, with future exercises and cooperation activities planned.
Georgian officials have attempted to downplay the significance of the tensions with the United States and EU. However, experts warn that the lower NATO profile in Georgia raises the risk of renewed confrontation with Russia. The Enguri Dam, a key piece of energy infrastructure in northwest Georgia, has been identified as a potential flashpoint.
"Abkhazia could claim that they need to strengthen their border" and, with Russian support, make a claim to the dam. Kapanadze said. "Who will help us in that situation?"
Overall, the state of NATO-Georgia relations is complex. Georgia's commitment to joining NATO remains strong, but addressing democratic concerns and maintaining NATO support will be crucial for future prospects. Despite current challenges, there are ongoing efforts to maintain cooperation, with future exercises and activities planned.
- The shift in relations between Georgia and the United States, highlighted by the indefinite postponement of the Noble Partner exercise, coincides with a broader trend in Georgia's 'environment' of moving away from Western alliances.
- The sports world seems untouched by the geopolitical changes, as Georgia's military is primarily focused on 'countering potential threats from Russia', particularly in regions like Abkhazia and South Ossetia, rather than sports-betting or general sports news.
- Experts suggest that the EU's decision to divert funding from Georgia's armed forces towards 'strengthening democratic institutions and supporting civil society and independent media' could be seen as a response to Georgia's 'policy-and-legislation' moves that clash with traditional Western values.
- The ongoing 'news' about the strained relationship between Georgia and the West, including unfounded allegations of a US-led coup conspiracy, has raised concerns among military analysts like Major General Vakhtang Kapanadze, who fears that Georgia might find itself unprepared to face potential threats, such as a renewed confrontation with Russia, without Western military partners.
