Hardline officials reportedly dismayed following Operation Spiderweb, urging Putin to escalate military action in Ukraine according to The Telegraph.
Vladimir Putin Under Heat: Tough Talk from Kremlin Hardliners
Tension in the Kremlin is brewing as Russian President Vladimir Putin faces renewed calls to declare war on Ukraine. Critics within Putin's circle argue that his ongoing "special military operation" falls short of what's needed.
The trigger? Ukraine's June 1 aerial assault, code-named Operation Spiderweb, that struck four Russian air bases, reportedly damaging close to 20 nuclear bombers. This move has left the Kremlin reeling, with one senior official expressing "shock and outrage" to the Telegraph, while another labeling it a "personal tragedy."
Following this strike, it appears Russia has redeployed numerous long-range bombers to more secluded bases within the country, according to Russian independent media outlet Agentstvo on June 11, citing OSINT analyst AviVector.
Despite the escalation, the Kremlin has held back from any drastic strategic shifts. A former Kremlin official shared with the Telegraph that the incident didn't catalyze any political discussion or change in military operations' format. Another source close to the Russian Defense Ministry stated, "Declaring war on Kyiv right now is unlikely. As cynical as it may sound, the leadership is content with the current situation."
Hardliners within the Kremlin advocate for a formal war declaration to sanction full-scale mobilization, regular missile attacks, and even the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons. One analyst informed the Telegraph that a declaration of war would grant the Russian government sweeping powers to transition the country into a wartime state.
Yet, Russia has not taken this step, preferring to preserve the illusion of control and shield the broader population from the war's immediate effects. The Kremlin is projected to allocate 6.3 percent of its GDP to defense this year—the highest level since the Cold War—yet still below what would normally suggest a country fully mobilized for war. By contrast, Ukraine spent 34 percent of its GDP on defense last year, while British wartime spending surpassed 50 percent of GDP during World War II.
"Mobilization undermines economic stability," shared a current government employee. He stressed that those within Putin's inner circle have persuaded the president that large-scale mobilization could lead to the collapse of the war effort.
The Kremlin's strategic aversion to a formal war declaration stems from several factors:
- Avoiding total war status and international repercussions: A war declaration would legally and politically ascribe the conflict as a full-scale war, potentially prompting global treaties, escalating sanctions, and increasing diplomatic isolation. Maintaining a state short of formal war provides some leeway on the international stage.
- Managing domestic and international narratives: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kremlin officials frame the conflict in restrained terms to control public perception and justify the military campaign as a "special military operation" or a fight against alleged threats, sidestepping the full mobilization and sacrifices associated with declared war.
- Balancing hardliner pressure and military strategy: While domestic hardliners press for escalation, Putin seeks to avoid steps potentially unifying Western support for Ukraine or provoking greater military aid to Kyiv. This deliberate strategy aims to intimidate the West and divide Ukraine from its Western partners without crossing thresholds inviting broader retaliation.
- Calculating endurance and resources: Putin seems confident in Russia's ability to endure mounting human and material costs without formally declaring war. However, Russia’s reserves are not infinite, and the conflict's path remains uncertain.
- Preventing NATO or Western military escalations: A formal declaration of war might solidify Western resolve to boost support for Ukraine or expand direct military involvement, which Russia seeks to avoid as it pursues regime change in Ukraine without triggering more severe countermeasures or broader international conflict escalation.
In essence, Russia's reluctance to declare war reflects a calculated decision to preserve strategic ambiguity, manage international and domestic consequences, and maintain pressure on Ukraine and its Western backers without crossing thresholds that could invite more severe countermeasures or broader international conflict escalation. This strategy aligns with Putin's war aims and the Kremlin's efforts to sustain the campaign amid heavy fighting and significant losses.
The heightened tension within the Kremlin, as Russian President Vladimir Putin faces calls for war against Ukraine, is also reflecting in political discussions centered on war-and-conflicts. Hardliners within the Kremlin are pushing for a formal war declaration, citing the need for full-scale mobilization, regular missile attacks, and even the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons to achieve their goals. This push can be seen as a part of the general-news narrative that Russia needs to escalate its "special military operation" to serve its interests more effectively.
