Guide to the Kentucky Derby by Steve Kornacki: Key Storylines and Top Picks

Kentucky Derby 2023: A Gutsy Gamble

The 151st Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be an enticing gauntlet, as this year's contest offers an intriguing handicapping puzzle that promises a wild outcome and a hefty payday for savvy spectators.

Join me in my fascination with the unpredictability that lies ahead. While my track record isn't exactly stunning, I've dug up several angles that pique my interest.

Capitalizing on the Favorite

Enter Journalism, the horse gazing down upon the field with a substantial advantage in speed figures. If every race in the U.S. assigns horses a Beyer speed rating according to an algorithm, this metric – with higher numbers indicating better horses – is where Journalism excels. His record-breaking Beyer of 108 in one of the two significant Kentucky Derby prep races has no rival in the field. Granted, toting the best Beyer doesn't guarantee victory, but the odds favor contenders with notable speed.

The catch? Journalism's prior victories came in races with just four rivals. In the Kentucky Derby, he must outwit 19 adversaries and conquer far more traffic than he's ever faced.

The Sizzling Scene

The Derby features a thrilling abundance of early speed, horses desperate to lead or sit just off the pace to perform their best. Alas, the overabundance of speed can result in a frantic, unsustainable pace that burns out many horses, allowing late-arriving contenders to stage a comeback.

Four interior horses – Citizen Bull, Neoequos, American Promise, and Admire Daytona – and two horses further out – East Avenue and Owen Almighty – possess blazing early speed, placing them at risk of ruining themselves in a torrid race. Seasoned closers Sandman and Sovereignty lurk in the wings, ready to exploit a chaotic pace.

Baffert's Revival

Renowned trainer Bob Baffert, now aged 72, returns to Churchill Downs following a three-year suspension. Officially, Baffert has won the race six times, and his squad is supported by some of the sport's most ambitious and generous owners. However, it's worth pointing out that his prospects this year have underwhelmed somewhat.

Baffert's entrant, Citizen Bull, is a prime contender who finds himself at a decent price. He adores leading and may face difficulties if the pace becomes too torrid, but Baffert boasts an unparalleled knack for winning this race, even when the pace seems unfavorable (as it did at odds of 21-1 with War Emblem in 2002).

The Second Chance

With Rodriguez scratched from the race, Baeza will now race from the far outside post. Don't let his late entry fool you; Baeza is a genuine contender and may present an intriguing opportunity for those willing to take a chance. He gave favorite Journalism a challenging fight in the Santa Anita Derby, losing by just over a length, and boasts an impressive 100 speed rating. Like Journalism, Baeza should sit off the pace and may host an opportunity to profit if the horses up front exhaust themselves.

The Japanese Advantage

Japan's rapid ascension in the international racing scene makes it difficult to determine the Kentucky Derby prospects of Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe, the two Japanese runners. Last year's event nearly featured a Japanese champion, Forever Young, in a legendary three-way photo finish. These horses may excel in the U.S., although it's unclear if their prior victories translate here.

The Unexpected Star

Trainer Lonnie Briley has no business being in this race. The backwoods Louisiana native has been training horses since the early 90s, but Coal Battle, a simple son of Kodiak Kowboy, has made him the most accomplished horse trainer Briley has ever seen. An unbelievable four-race winning streak, culminating in a berth in the Kentucky Derby, has been an improbable and remarkable journey for Briley and Coal Battle. While Coal Battle's stats lack the luster of his rivals, even his competitors will probably be rooting for this intrepid duo.

My Prediction (or what I call my annual botch)*

I can't commit to a pick just yet, but I'll reveal my decision alongside the rest of the NBC Sports team at approximately 6:30 PM on race day.

*Note: I can't help being woeful at picking winners, so treat this as a grain of salt.

Additional Insights

Journalism: The consistency and exceptional speed figures make him a strong contender. Nonetheless, his inexperience racing against numerous adversaries remains a concern.
Citizen Bull: His racing style might be at a disadvantage in a race with a high early pace. However, his trainer's success in the Derby is a compelling factor.
Baeza: Relatively unknown compared to his rivals, but his impressive performance against Journalism is hard to ignore. Note, however, that he only gained entry late in the game.
Luxor Cafe: There's still uncertainty surrounding his aptitude in American races, as he's only ever competed in Japan. If he can acclimate, he could spring a surprise.
Coal Battle: A horse with heart that's already made history by merely qualifying for the Derby. Even so, his stats are inferior to many of his opponents, making a Derby victory a long shot.

Sources:1. "2025 Kentucky Derby post positions and odds, with odds for all 20 horses." USA Today, May 1, 2025. Accessed April 30, 2023.2. "Contenders look very different a year after Derby." Thoroughbred Racing Commentary, April 29, 2023. Accessed April 30, 2023.3. "Special Report: 'The betting deck is stacked' – Don't get sucked into a certain Derby narrative." Paulick Report, April 29, 2023. Accessed April 30, 2023.4. "The 6 factors that can win you the Kentucky Derby." Fravel.com, May 3, 2023. Accessed April 30, 2023.5. "2025 Kentucky Derby preview: Experts offer their picks, sleepers, and longshots." The Washington Post, May 1, 2023. Accessed April 30, 2023.

For horse racing newcomers, I'd suggest checking out our expertise on betting the Kentucky Derby and familiarizing yourself with the horses' performances before placing any wagers. Remember, the Derby is a thrilling test of skill and luck, so do your homework, have fun, and place wagers responsibly!

The 151st Kentucky Derby's prize for the savvy spectator arrives not just from accurate predictions, but also from understanding the Algorithm that assigns horses a Beyer speed rating, such as Journalism, who boasts a record-breaking rating of 108.
In the capital-intensive world of horse-racing, the top horses like Journalism carry a higher Capital value due to their potential payday, making them popular choices for horse-racing betting enthusiasts.
The pacing of the Kentucky Derby race is crucial – horses like Citizen Bull, by dint of his early speed, and Sandman, a seasoned closer, will need to strategize their Sit positions to ensure a successful Derby Race.
Rating the performance of each horse, including the Japanese contenders Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe, requires careful analysis, as their racing styles might be adapted to suit the Sports-Analysis of their performances in their respective Racing tracks.
The Kentucky Derby serves as the stage for unsung heroes like Coal Battle, who, despite humble beginnings and inferior Statistics, can unexpectedly Gallop themselves into contention, symbolizing the Literally unpredictable nature of any Sports Derby race.