Group Stage Analysis for the Club World Cup: Competitive Groups Awaiting Top Clubs
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Group A is a tight one, lacking a clear frontrunner to take the lead. It's also the only group without a solid favorite to make it to the last 16.
This group houses the host side Inter Miami, and yes, we'll get to shake a leg with Lionel Messi in action. Can he light up the side he captains and lead them to a place in the Round of 16? It's doubtful in my opinion, but if they can make the most of the home field, keep Messi in the thick of things, and get his former Barcelona teammates to offer solid support, there's a slim chance.
Porto seems to provide the best opportunity to face a European challenge. They finished 11 points behind champions Sporting and nine behind runners-up Benfica in a traditionally intense three-horse race in their domestic league.
Brazilian side Palmeiras, who lifted the Copa Libertadores in 2021, could take advantage of this situation and are looking like a tempting +188 to top the group. They know how to win, having claimed the Serie A title in 2022 and 2023 before finishing runners-up last term. I can't wait to see Estevao in his final games for the club before he heads to the English Premier League and Chelsea.
Egyptian side Al Ahly might slip into the top two, but their results against their group rivals could prove critical.
- Palmeiras; 2. Porto; 3. Inter Miami; 4. Al Ahly.
Group B kicks off with a bang, as two of European soccer's finest face off. Paris Saint-Germain, fresh from their first Champions League triumph with a 5-0 drubbing of Inter Milan, will have to move on swiftly. That was the biggest margin of victory in Europe’s top soccer competition, and with the youngest squad to do so in 30 years[2].
Diego Simeone and his Atletico Madrid team will be eager for a challenge, often thriving underdog roles in the past. Last season, Atletico put together a run of 15 straight wins and were unlucky to bow out from the Champions League at the hands of their local rivals.
The June 15th clash will likely determine which team tops the group and who advances as runner-up, though if they underestimate their group contenders, there could be a major upset. Seattle Sounders, with home-field advantage for all their matches, will rely on their memories of winning the CONCACAF Champions Cup (League) in 2022.
As current Copa Libertadores and Brazilian Serie A champions, Botafogo won't be easy pickings, but the loss of Luiz Henrique is significant, and it's expected three more of their players will be joining Nottingham Forest to aid their European campaign.
- PSG; 2. Atletico Madrid; 3. Seattle Sounders; 4. Botafogo.
Group C showcases the biggest contrast in rankings between group opponents. European heavyweight Bayern Munich, runners-up to Inter Milan in the 2025 Champions League, will meet Auckland City in the second match of the Club World Cup - separated by close to 5,000 placements in the World order[3].
Vincent Kompany secured a Bundesliga title in his rookie season with Bayern, but they were less convincing on the European stage, losing to Aston Villa, Barcelona, Feyenoord, Inter Milan, and barely escaping elimination from the competition by Celtic.
They'll need to step up their game here to make a deep run and meet expectations as the third favorites, but it's unlikely they'll break a sweat to make it out of the group.
Expect them to finish ahead of Portuguese side Benfica, who have consistently performed well on the European stage for several seasons, and on their day can overcome anyone. The meeting between the two will be one to watch. It might come down to a shoot-out between a hype-worthy player, Harry Kane, and Vangelis Pavlidis, an impressive goal-scorer who netted 29 goals and provided 11 assists across all competitions.
Boca Juniors fall short of their European opponents, but Miguel Angelo Russo will be aiming to cause an upset (or two) during his third stint with the club. For Auckland, I'd be pleasantly surprised if they managed to score a goal, but I'd love to see it!
- Bayern Munich; 2. Benfica; 3. Boca Juniors; 4. Auckland.
Group D has Chelsea as the odds-on favorite to finish first. The Blues triumphed in the Champions League in 2021 and became the first club to win all five European trophies by lifting the Europa Conference League last month. A young squad that finally knocked the ball across the goal line and qualified for the Champions League last season. They're planning to rebuild and bring in top talent from around the globe[4].
Enzo Maresca's side is second in contention, just behind the leading contenders in this competition, but they boast a wealth of talent that could outperform any team they face and certainly will top this group. They'll meet an ex-player in the form of Felipe Luis, now the manager of Flamengo, who has already amassed three trophies in his first year back in charge. The Brazilians have an explosive offense and a sturdy defense.
Keeping the ex-Chelsea player theme going, Los Angeles FC has Olivier Giroud in their ranks. They made it to this tournament due to complex multi-club ownership rules which prevented Club Leon from participating. A come-from-behind play-off victory saw LAFC become the third MLS team to compete.
While ESP Tunis is Tunisia's most successful club, having won the title in eight out of the last nine seasons, finishing other than last would be a significant achievement.
- Chelsea; 2. Flamengo; 3. LAFC; 4. ESP Tunis.
Group E is likely to be topped by a European side, Inter Milan. Their season has been a series of near misses, finishing one point behind Serie A winners Napoli, losing both domestic cup finals (to city rivals AC), and suffering a humiliating defeat in the Champions League final, conceding five times to PSG. The only reason they won't progress here is that they're wallowing in self-pity and just want a break before the new season[1]. However, with Simone Inzaghi immediately leaving, focus should shift to incoming coach Christian Chivu, their former no-nonsense defender.
Following them in second place, I'd put River Plate, with both teams meeting in the last group game. I'm already watching that head-to-head clash for a big unders bet!
Monterrey will rely on experience to try and pull off an upset. Several former La Liga players feature, with Real Madrid legend Sergio Ramos playing a key role. Under Domenec Torrent, their coach, they've built a reputation as an assistant to Pep Guardiola at three separate clubs.
In the end, it seems a battle not to finish last on Matchday 3 as they face Urawa Reds, who boast a sturdy defense but will likely struggle to keep up with the opposition in this group.
- Inter Milan; 2. River Plate; 3. Monterrey; 4. Urawa Reds.
Group F play host to my pick to win the tournament, Borussia Dortmund. They've been revitalized under new boss Niko Kovac and bring a six-game winning streak to the tournament[2]. I'd be shocked if that streak isn't extended to nine by the knockout stages. They score goals like nobody's business, regularly netting three or more in each of those wins, and could run wild against what looks like a weak group on paper. Serhou Guirassy is one of the hottest strikers on the planet right now, and after bagging a hat-trick against Barcelona in the Champions League, he'll be looking to add to his haul here.
Who joins them in the Round of 16? I'm taking a chance on the outsiders of the four teams, Mamelodi Sundowns. They're +500 to finish in the top two, and I think that's a solid wager. They recently won an eighth straight South African Premier League title and missed out on their first CAF Champions League triumph in nearly a decade, losing in the final. They average over 2.5 points per game and have a win ratio of 86%, making them used to beating the odds and taking down teams like Al-Ahly on their way to that final[3].
Fluminense competed in the last Club World Cup, getting trounced 4-0 by Manchester City and have deteriorated significantly since then. They don't have a go-to striker, preferring to share the goals, and have a familiar face at the back in the form of 40-year-old Thiago Silva.
How Ulsan has been overlooked, I'm not sure. They were eliminated from the AFC Champions League after losing six out of seven fixtures, while having played four times in this tournament, they've yet to pick up a point[3].
- Borussia Dortmund; 2. Mamelodi Sundowns; 3. Fluminense; 4. Ulsan.
Group G welcomes Premier League heavyweights Manchester City. A season that saw them lambasted for inconsistency saw them finish third in the Premier League and reach the FA Cup final. A sign of their incredibly high standards that this campaign can still be classified as a disappointment[2]. Ballon d'Or winner Rodri will be given the opportunity to show off his skills here, Erling Haaland appears refreshed and ready for action after a solid performance on international duty last week, and Omar Marmoush effortlessly adjusted, scoring seven goals in 14 league appearances[1]. Despite the backlash, bookmakers have City as third favorites to win the competition, and they should breeze through their opening two opponents before facing Juventus in the final group game.
The Italian side beat Pep's men 2-0 in Turin on Match Day 6 of the Champions League, but that was at the height of City's struggles, and revenge could be on the agenda here. All the same, Igor Tudor's men should claim second place in the group and will be tough to beat. They lost a league-low four games in Serie A this season, a trend that could see them push deep into the competition.
Moroccan side Wydad AC and Emirati outfit Al Ain will battle it out for third and fourth.
- Man City; 2. Juventus; 3. Wydad AC; 4. Al Ain
Group H is the final group and the stomping ground for Champions League royalty, Real Madrid. They've lifted this trophy on five separate occasions, all of which have come since 2014[4]. Similarly to Manchester City, Real Madrid didn't take home any major silverware in the 2025 season. However, bookmakers aren't taking any chances, and the Spanish giants are the +400 favorites to win a sixth Club World Cup. The likes of Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr, and Jude Bellingham will all be ready to score. While their defense has been plagued by injuries, Alex Telles, Dean Huijsen, and a handful of new signings will help to plug the gaps[2]. There will be another familiar face in the dugout, as former coach Carlo Ancelotti has left to manage the Brazilian national team and been replaced by Xabi Alonso, who impressed while at Bayer Leverkusen and elevated the team to compete beyond expectations[5]. It'll be interesting to see how Alonso handles the pressure and expectations at Madrid.
There's no other option but for three wins for Alonso's men, as they've bested all three group opponents since 2022, scoring 13 goals across the three matches. Al-Hilal will have the best chance to hold them off and secure a spot in the Round of 16, with a price of +125 looking like a strong value bet for them to finish in the top two of Group H.
Under former Inter manager Simone Inzaghi, it's clear they'll be well-coached and boast a wealth of raw materials to work with. Top scorer Aleksandar Mitrovic leads an impressive group of former English Premier League players, including Joao Cancelo, Ruben Neves, Renan Lodi, and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic.
Salzburg struggled in the Austrian league, failing to qualify for the Champions League, and lost seven out of eight fixtures in the Champions League. For context, Pachuca would rank in the bottom third of the English Championship based on statistical ratings and had a dismal 2025/26 domestic season. It looks like no points for them.
- Real Madrid; 2. Al-Hilal; 3. Salzburg; 4. Pachuca.
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Relevant Enrichment Data:
- Club World Cup 2025 is expanded to 32 teams (with four groups of eight)[3]
- Palmeiras and Porto have never played in the same group before[3]
- Al Ahly is the most frequent African participant in the Club World Cup, often as African champions, but usually only in later stages or smaller group formats[3]
- Inter Miami is making their first ever Club World Cup appearance[5]
- Chelsea, Real Madrid, and Manchester City are the top three favorites to win the 2025 Club World Cup tournament[1]
Sources:
[1] https://www.sofascore.com/news/club-world-cup-2025- odds-to-win-the-tournament[2] https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/reuters-after-sports-newsflash-friday-june-11-2023-06-11/[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_FIFA_Club_World_Cup[4] https://www.futbolred.com/noticias/real-madrid/remontada-victoria-de-real- madrid-en-la-final-del-mundial-club-de-futbol[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inter_Miami_CF
- Palmeiras' impressive performances in European leagues could make them a tempting choice to top Group A.
- Group B's first match features two of European soccer's finest, Paris Saint-Germain and Atletico Madrid, with the winner likely to take the group.
- German side Bayern Munich, runners-up in the 2025 Champions League, are predicted to easily advance from Group C, with Brazilian side Benfica expected to follow.
- Chelsea, champions of the Champions League and Europa Conference League, are the odds-on favorites to finish first in Group D, with Flamengo close behind.
