Granted the label of eccentric, yet it's hard to argue against the notion that a decline in criminal activities is a positive development.
Rotten Apples, Skewed Stats: The Battle Over Seattle's Crime Drop
In the gritty world of journalism, no topic stirs controversy quite like good news about a city's crime rates. This is especially true in Seattle, where the suggests that crime might be on the decline. However, the Seattle Police Officers Guild (SPOG) vehemently disagrees, claiming that the declining crime rates are nothing more than a manipulation of statistics.
Writing this column for two decades, I've noticed a peculiar pattern. People who often cite police data when crime is rising simply refuse to accept the same data when it goes down. It's bizarre that this phenomenon is particularly noticeable among the police themselves. In fact, I ended up wearing an acorn on my head in a Seattle police union video, all because I had the audacity to suggest that SPOG should stop portraying Seattle as a lawless city on its social media feed.
"It's disgraceful," said Mike Solan, the president of the union, during a YouTube segment directed at me. "It's not journalism ... because crime is through the roof."
He labeled me as "Danny Westnut," displaying a photo mashup of me wearing an acorn on my head. Apparently, the fifth graders who first called me that back in '76 would be pleased.
Solan argues that crime isn't actually dropping; it only appears to be due to a decrease in calls. People aren't calling because they don't believe an officer will come. Is this true? To find out, I consulted crime data expert, Jeff Asher of AH Datalytics.
According to Asher, it's possible that call volume could affect rates for some property crimes, which are often not reported. However, for serious or violent crimes, this isn't the case. Instead, Asher suggests focusing on four crimes with the highest report rates: homicide, shootings, car theft, and robbery.
Results from these crimes, through four months of 2025 in Seattle, reveal a significant drop in crime rates. Homicide is down 25%, shootings down 22%, car theft down 32%, and robbery down 26%, according to the police data. Compared to the year Seattle hit a 30-year high for violent crime, 2022, these declines are eye-popping: Homicide is down -50%, shootings are down -41%, car theft is down -20%, and robbery is down -36%.
It's worth noting that call volume from the Seattle public is down compared to pre-pandemic levels. However, it's actually up through four months this year compared to high-crime 2022, according to the city's dispatch dashboard.
"We're seeing enormous drops in crime, pretty much everywhere around the country," Asher said. "That's not a reporting issue. Those crimes are actually down."
But why is crime dropping? Unfortunately, no one seems to know. Despite decades of research, the reasons for crime fluctuations remain a mystery.
The dispute between SPOG and those who believe the crime rate is falling arises from the union's defensive stance toward reforms, doubts about data reliability, and efforts to influence public perception and policy by emphasizing risks and challenges rather than celebrating recorded crime reductions[4][5][1]. It's a seemingly endless battle over facts, figures, and perspective on the city's safety.
So there you have it – the city of Seattle is experiencing a significant drop in crime rates. But don't expect a congratulatory message from the police union anytime soon. Instead, you'll likely hear cries of manipulated statistics and a city in crisis.
dwestneat@our website
- The police union in Bellevue, following a similar pattern as seen in Seattle, might reject any suggestions of a drop in crime rates, as suggested by the Seattle Police Officers Guild (SPOG) disagreed with statistics showing a decline in crime.
- In the realm of general-news and crime-and-justice, the ongoing debate in Seattle over the falling crime rates has extended to Bellevue, stirring opinions and controversy, much like in the case of Seattle's Rotten Apples, Skewed Stats.
- Journalists and businesses in Bellevue may face criticism from local law enforcement, similar to what Danny Westnut experienced when he was labeled "Danny Westnut" and made fun of in a Seattle police union video.
- As in Seattle, the Bellevue police union could potentially question the reliability of crime statistics, using calls to emergency services as a point of argument, similar to the dispute over whether a decrease in calls could affect certain property crimes in Seattle.
- Bellevue's political landscape could also be influenced by local unions' efforts to shape public perception and policy, as SPOG has been known to emphasize risks and challenges rather than celebrating recorded crime reductions, contributing to a seemingly endless battle over facts, figures, and perspective on the city's safety.
