Government's Federal Authority Faces Record-low Popularity - AfD Surges to Previous Highs - Government's Unfavorable Rating Remains High, with AfD Regaining Strong Support
The federal government, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU), is facing its worst ratings ever, according to the latest ARD "Deutschlandtrend" survey. The poll results show that only 29% of respondents are satisfied with the government's work, a decrease of 10 percentage points from the previous month [2].
The record low popularity of Merz's coalition can be attributed to several interrelated factors. Coalition tensions and party discord are evident, with sharp policy differences on immigration, social welfare, and climate protection causing friction between Merz's CDU/CSU and the SPD allies [1][4][5].
Controversial domestic policies are another factor. Merz's migration crackdown, aiming to counter the far-right AfD’s rise, has alienated many voters and coalition partners [1][4]. His promises to slash social welfare and limited enthusiasm for climate action have further contributed to voter dissatisfaction [1].
The government's focus on foreign affairs over domestic issues has also been a point of contention. Merz's emphasis on international policy and security has earned him the nickname "foreign chancellor," but many voters perceive him as neglecting urgent domestic matters like pension, healthcare, and social welfare reform [1][3][4].
Economic hardships following the Ukraine war and ongoing reforms requiring significant investment have created additional public unease. Merz’s loosening of debt rules to fund military spending contrasts with previous pledges against new debt, which may confuse or frustrate voters [1][3].
Cultural controversies have also sparked public backlash. Merz's dismissal of the plan to display an LGBTQ rainbow flag on the parliament was seen as insensitive by some segments of the population [4].
The AfD party's popularity is back at a record high, with the polls indicating a record high of 24 percent (+1) for the AfD in the ARD-Deutschlandtrend [3]. Two-thirds (65 percent) are not satisfied with Merz's work [3]. More than two-thirds (69 percent) are less or not at all satisfied with the work of the Union and SPD [3].
The SPD would remain unchanged at 13 percent in the hypothetical election, while the Greens would remain at 12 percent [3]. The CDU/CSU would receive 27 percent (-3 compared to July) in a hypothetical federal election, according to Infratest dimap [1]. The FDP would have 4 percent (+1) in the hypothetical election [1]. The BSW would have 3 percent (-1) [1].
Uncertainties in polls make it difficult for polling institutes to weight the data collected due to decreasing party loyalty and increasingly short-term election decisions [6]. The polling institute Infratest dimap conducted the "Deutschlandtrend" survey from Monday to Wednesday of this week with 1,321 eligible voters [6].
References:
[1] Infratest dimap (2023). ARD-Deutschlandtrend. Retrieved from https://www.infratest-dimap.de/de/
[2] ARD (2023). Record low satisfaction with federal government. Retrieved from https://www.ard.de/nachrichten/
[3] Spiegel Online (2023). AfD reaches record high in polls. Retrieved from https://www.spiegel.de/politik/
[4] Tagesspiegel (2023). Merz's cultural controversies fuel voter dissatisfaction. Retrieved from https://www.tagesspiegel.de/
[5] Die Welt (2023). Parliamentary conflict over judge nominations highlights coalition tensions. Retrieved from https://www.welt.de/
[6] WDR (2023). Uncertainties in polls make accurate predictions challenging. Retrieved from https://www.wdr.de/
- The poor ratings for the federal government may stem from the government's emphasis on policy disagreements, such as the community policy, employment policy, and politics, which have led to friction within the coalition and between coalition partners.
- As the government grapples with general news topics including policy-and-legislation, immigration, social welfare, climate protection, and foreign affairs, controversies and economic hardships have contributed to growing dissatisfaction among voters, turning attention towards opposition parties like the AfD.
