Agriculture in Trouble: Severe Weather and Environmental Policies Threaten Crop Yields
Bad weather and governmental regulations have hit the farming industry hard this year. Staring trouble from the get-go, the 2023 planting season saw an abundance of rainfall, as noted by the ministry. This caused a decrease in the amount of land dedicated to cereals by 5.7%, leaving us with 5.27 million hectares. Meanwhile, the area under rapeseed shrunk by 7.3%, settling at 1.09 million hectares. The tentative yield estimation for rapeseed currently stands at 3.6 million tons, displaying a 14.3% decrease compared to the preceding year.
The ministry described 2023 as a year of "unusual weather conditions" - a "wet autumn" in 2023, followed by the "hottest spring" of 2024 with late frosts, widespread flooding, and a wet summer plagued by severe storms. These weather events took a toll on several crops, including potatoes and fruit and wine production, particularly on a regional scale.
Federal Minister of Agriculture Cem Özdemir (Greens) observed that "climate change has made its mark on agriculture," and the "climate crisis increases the frequency and duration of extreme weather events, hindering production and posing a direct threat to crops." In response, Özdemir emphasized the importance of climate action for crop protection.
Last week, the German Farmers' Association voiced its disappointment towards this year’s harvest. President Joachim Rukwied attributed the subpar harvest yields to both climate change and the government's "ideological" policies impacting the use of fertilizers and pesticides.
Despite these challenges, German farmers continue operaing to generate revenue. However, the financial return from crops for this year is expected to decrease due to the influences of climate change and environmental regulations.
Additional Insights
Climate change is posing a significant threat to crop yields globally and in Germany, primarily through extreme weather events such as heatwaves and droughts.
- Globally, particularly in food production systems:
- A 2°C temperature rise by the end of this century would have severe negative impacts on food production, as per the IPCC AR6 report[1].
- Building resilience in food systems is crucial, but the implementation of certain barriers, limitations, and the effectiveness of these adaptations are hindrances[1].
- Projected multi-breadbasket failures: Drought or extreme weather events affecting crop production across various regions globally[1].
- In Germany:
- The 2018 drought presented a massive impact on crop yields, especially for winter wheat[2][3].
- Winter wheat yields were far below the 30-year average and the last three years, with losses reaching over 40% in certain counties[2][3].
- Climate-driven variations in water availability and evaporative demand will continue to challenge agricultural production in the future.
- Future projections and examples:
- In Ethiopia, climate change is predicted to alter future agricultural water availability, creating difficulties in rainfed agricultural systems[4].
Despite these challenges, farmers are fighting to earn a living, but climate change and environmental policies are expected to decrease crop-related income.
