Government Directive Issues Demand for Analysis on National Status
Firing on All Fronts: Germany's Extremist Downpour in 2024
Germany's Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) has sounded the alarm, revealing escalating extremist activities in 2024. The report paints a picture of swelling right-wing extremism, with a whopping 23% increase in right-wing extremist potential, reaching an alarming 50,250 individuals[1]. This surge is, in part, due to the surge of AfD members, with 20,000 AfD members classified as right-wing extremist potential in the previous year[1].
Alexander Dobrindt, Federal Interior Minister, and Sinan Selen, Vice-President of the BfV, unveiled this startling data in Berlin. Selen characterizes the AfD as having a "hinge function" in the right-wing extremist spectrum, seeding controversial topics that eventually find their way into the mainstream, while Dobrindt underscores the AfD's role in fostering societal polarization[1].
On the violence front, the number of right-wing extremists assessed as violence-oriented increased by 800 to a staggering 15,300[1]. Additionally, the BfV cautions that an alarming number of children and young people are radicalizing, with these youths transitioning quickly to violent action[1].
The rise in right-wing extremism is complemented by a concurrent spike in the number of "Reichsbürger" and self-administrators. The BfV reports a 1,000-person increase, bringing the total to roughly 26,000 individuals[1]. "Reichsbürger" deny the legitimacy of the Federal Republic of Germany and resist taxes, social security contributions, and fines[1].
Although the number of constitutionally relevant delegitimizers of the state decreased slightly in 2024, the figure remains concerning, with approximately 1,500 individuals[1].
On the left-wing side of the spectrum, while the overall number ofleft-wing extremists inched up from 37,000 to roughly 38,000, the number of violence-oriented left-wing extremists remains steady at 11,200[1]. Reports warn of a potential resurgence of left-wing terrorism, with unchecked radicalization posing a perilous threat[1].
Islamist groups, although underrepresented in 2024's public reports, have consistently been identified as a significant concern by the BfV[3]. Previous years' reports emphasized the ongoing monitoring of Islamist extremism, with the potential Islamist population estimated at 28,280 individuals[3]. Notably, the violence-oriented Islamist potential is estimated at 9,540 people[3].
Remarkably, the Middle East conflict continues to serve as a recruiting ground for various extremist groups, with the situation in the Gaza Strip fueling the propagation of xenophobic and anti-Semitic ideas within the right-wing scene[4]. In contrast, the left-wing scene displays polarizing sentiments, with autonomous left-wing extremists largely supporting pro-Israeli positions in private, while anti-imperialist and dogmatic left-wing extremists publicly advocating for pro-Palestinian positions[4].
Lastly, intelligence agencies have reported a significant uptick in indications of possible sabotage incidents attributed to Russian Intelligence services, manifesting in attempted or actual arson, vandalism, espionage, and propaganda activities across Europe[4]. These activities predominantly involve low-level agents, colloquially referred to as "disposable agents." These individuals serve specific tasks and are not trained intelligence agency employees[4].
- The surge in right-wing extremism in Germany extends beyond politics, with the sports betting industry reporting an increase in betting on war-and-conflicts, particularly those involving extremist groups.
- Amidst the escalating crime-and-justice issues, general news outlets have highlighted the potential impact of war-and-conflicts on domestic politics, with the rising extremist activities in Germany potentially influencing political agendas.
- Despite the focus on war-and-conflicts, sports remain a significant part of the societal fabric in Germany, with sports-betting platforms continuing to operate, albeit with a keen eye on the potential risks posed by escalating extremist activities.
