Gold’s 9% rebound fades as Treasury yields crush recovery hopes
Gold prices saw a brief recovery in early November 2025, climbing 9% from their late-October lows. However, the rally appears to be a short-lived correction rather than a lasting turnaround. Last week, the precious metal reversed sharply, signalling further weakness ahead as US Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs.
Between October 28 and November 13, gold (XAU/USD) staged a 9% rebound from its recent low. This uptick followed a steep decline earlier in October, but analysts view it as a minor correction within a broader downward trend.
On November 14, gold reversed course, forming a bearish 'Shooting Star' candlestick pattern by the end of the week. This technical signal suggests buyers lacked the strength to push prices higher, reinforcing expectations of a renewed decline.
Adding pressure, the 10-year US Treasury real yield broke decisively above its prior resistance level of 1.77% on October 30. It now trades firmly above that threshold, with nominal yields reaching approximately 4.09% to 4.11%. The rise in yields, driven by Federal Reserve policy and shifting rate expectations, typically weighs on non-yielding assets like gold.
Key levels are now in focus for traders. Immediate resistance sits at US$4,155, while a drop below US$4,036 could trigger the next leg of the corrective decline. Should that happen, gold may test intermediate supports at US$3,980 and US$3,895/3,864 in the coming weeks.
The recent rebound in gold has stalled, with technical patterns and rising Treasury yields pointing to further downside. A break below US$4,036 would likely accelerate the decline, exposing lower support levels. Traders are now watching these thresholds closely as the metal faces renewed selling pressure.
